Your clients may be tired of thinking about masks and COVID-19, but the increase in the U.S. death rate caused by COVID-19, efforts to fight the pandemic, pandemic-related pressure on the health care system, and other factors may continue to be high enough to throw off life expectancy forecasts for your clients. They still have to think about building a life expectancy uncertainty factor into life insurance planning, retirement income planning and other mortality-related arrangements.
States are in charge of filing death data, and the completeness and accuracy of the data filed by any given state in a given week may vary widely. We compensated for data filing lags for the general population by using the CDC FluView report data released in week 35 for 2019, 2021 and 2022. For the numbers for the working-age population, we compensated by using the CDC's "weighted data." The weighted numbers include the CDC's efforts to adjust for data filing delays.
For July — a month with data that's starting to firm up — the change in the number of deaths of people ages 25 through 64 between 2019 and this year ranged from a decrease of 28.5%, in Iowa, to an increase of 87.3%. An 87.3% increase means that the number of total deaths of working-age people in that state in July was almost twice as high as it was in July 2019.
Number of deaths | Change from… | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
July 2019 | July 2021 | July 2022 | July 2019 | July 2021 | |
Alabama | 1,095 | 1,312 | 1,200 | 9.6% | -8.5% |
Alaska | 90 | 137 | 124 | 37.8% | -9.5% |
Arizona | 1,180 | 1,477 | 1,449 | 22.8% | -1.9% |
Arkansas | 600 | 887 | 671 | 11.8% | -24.4% |
California | 4,661 | 5,743 | 5,472 | 17.4% | -4.7% |
Colorado | 806 | 922 | 918 | 13.9% | -0.4% |
Connecticut | 498 | 593 | 570 | 14.5% | -3.9% |
Delaware | 145 | 160 | 184 | 26.9% | 15.0% |
District of Columbia | 139 | 187 | 163 | 17.3% | -12.8% |
Florida | 3,604 | 4,930 | 3,935 | 9.2% | -20.2% |
Georgia | 1,811 | 2,187 | 1,899 | 4.9% | -13.2% |
Hawaii | 180 | 249 | 164 | -8.9% | -34.1% |
Idaho | 187 | 300 | 279 | 49.2% | -7.0% |
Illinois | 1,805 | 2,131 | 1,984 | 9.9% | -6.9% |
Indiana | 1,238 | 1,437 | 1,234 | -0.3% | -14.1% |
Iowa | 499 | 495 | 357 | -28.5% | -27.9% |
Kansas | 446 | 546 | 454 | 1.8% | -16.8% |
Kentucky | 1,024 | 1,205 | 1,036 | 1.2% | -14.0% |
Louisiana | 1,017 | 1,375 | 946 | -7.0% | -31.2% |
Maine | 213 | 258 | 255 | 19.7% | -1.2% |
Maryland | 1,001 | 1,012 | 926 | -7.5% | -8.5% |
Massachusetts | 973 | 996 | 1,015 | 4.3% | 1.9% |
Michigan | 1,717 | 1,824 | 1,924 | 12.1% | 5.5% |
Minnesota | 669 | 785 | 644 | -3.7% | -18.0% |
Mississippi | 689 | 919 | 744 | 8.0% | -19.0% |
Missouri | 1,253 | 1,637 | 1,149 | -8.3% | -29.8% |
Montana | 142 | 190 | 195 | 37.3% | 2.6% |
Nebraska | 257 | 285 | 265 | 3.1% | -7.0% |
Nevada | 521 | 877 | 639 | 22.6% | -27.1% |
New Hampshire | 174 | 176 | 207 | 19.0% | 17.6% |
New Jersey | 1,233 | 1,301 | 1,254 | 1.7% | -3.6% |
New Mexico | 447 | 514 | 433 | -3.1% | -15.8% |
New York | 1,522 | 1,704 | 1,674 | 10.0% | -1.8% |
New York City | 1,008 | 1,107 | 1,202 | 19.2% | 8.6% |
North Carolina | 1,781 | 2,199 | 1,959 | 10.0% | -10.9% |
North Dakota | 98 | 97 | 98 | 0.0% | 1.0% |
Ohio | 2,264 | 2,466 | 2,359 | 4.2% | -4.3% |
Oklahoma | 752 | 938 | 878 | 16.8% | -6.4% |
Oregon | 588 | 727 | 681 | 15.8% | -6.3% |
Pennsylvania | 2,176 | 2,351 | 2,266 | 4.1% | -3.6% |
Puerto Rico | 525 | 493 | 592 | 12.8% | 20.1% |
Rhode Island | 151 | 133 | 143 | -5.3% | 7.5% |
South Carolina | 982 | 1,205 | 1,161 | 18.2% | -3.7% |
South Dakota | 97 | 162 | 124 | 27.8% | -23.5% |
Tennessee | 1,581 | 1,851 | 1,684 | 6.5% | -9.0% |
Texas | 4,123 | 5,242 | 4,870 | 18.1% | -7.1% |
United States | 51,654 | 62,102 | 56,642 | 9.7% | -8.8% |
Utah | 348 | 460 | 375 | 7.8% | -18.5% |
Vermont | 55 | 100 | 103 | 87.3% | 3.0% |
Virginia | 1,201 | 1,432 | 1,398 | 16.4% | -2.4% |
Washington | 970 | 1,225 | 1,198 | 23.5% | -2.2% |
West Virginia | 439 | 492 | 579 | 31.9% | 17.7% |
Wisconsin | 806 | 921 | 921 | 14.3% | 0.0% |
Wyoming | 84 | 86 | 69 | -17.9% | -19.8% |
TOTAL | 103,519 | 124,540 | 113,665 | 9.8% | -8.7% |
MEDIAN | 10.0% | -7.0% |
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