Chances that we are in a new bull market appear to have increased recently, LPL Financial strategists said in market commentary Monday.
Last week's two better-than-expected inflation reports drove the S&P 500 to 16% above its June 16 low and only 11% below its all-time high, noted Jeffrey Buchbinder, LPL chief equity strategist, and George Smith, portfolio strategist.
"After this rebound, the key question investors are asking is whether this is a bear market rally that will soon fizzle or the start of a new bull market. There's too much uncertainty to have a high conviction view right now, but we do believe the odds have risen that a new bull market has begun," the pair wrote.
Low expectations for the economy and corporate profits have pushed stocks "nicely higher" after negative sentiment left major equities indexes oversold, Buchbinder and Smith said.
"Now that better news is priced into stocks with the S&P 500 price-to-earnings ratio approaching 18, the next leg higher may be tough. That move will likely depend on the market gaining more confidence that the inflation battle will be won, setting the economy up for a soft landing as the Federal Reserve slows its pace of rate hikes," they wrote.
Technical signals suggest the recent market gains may represent a bull market rather than a bear market rally, according to the strategists. They noted that the S&P 500 closed Friday above a "retracement level" that historically indicates a new bull market has started.
"In all bear markets since WWII, when the index has risen above that retracement level, it has been the start the next bull market rather than a bear market rally which eventually fell to new lows," they wrote.
Moreover, last Thursday, 87% of S&P 500 index companies traded higher than their 50-day moving averages, close to the 90% level that historically indicates a new bull market has started, according to the LPL strategists.
"While this is not a necessary condition for the end of the bear market, it would increase our confidence that a rally back to the old highs will come before a return to the June lows," they wrote.
