The good news is that yields in U.S. Treasury securities may be near their peak. The bad news is that makes the recession I've been forecasting since February more likely.
The current campaign by the Federal Reserve to raise its main policy interest rate — the overnight federal funds rate — in response to rapid inflation normally precipitates a business downturn.
Since the central bank adopted this measure in 1954, there have been 11 recessions and only three exceptions, or soft landings — in 1966, 1984 and 1996.
A soft landing occurs as the central bank lowers the funds rate after a series of increases with no recession unfolding. Until the Fed cuts rates, it's uncertain as to whether its credit-tightening campaign is over or has merely paused.
My analysis of post-World War II history reveals that a 100-basis-point rise in the funds rate is linked to a 36-basis-point rise in the 10-year Treasury note yield and a 24-basis-point increase in the 30-year Treasury bond yield. The further out on the yield curve, the less the influence of central bank policy.
The 10-year note yield peaked at 3.48% on June 14, the highest since 2011. It has since fallen back to around 3.22%. The yield jumped from 2.18% on March 16, when the Fed first raised its reference rate from a range of zero to 0.25% to a range of 0.25% to 0.5% (it's now in a range of 1.5% to 1.75%).
The 1.30-percentage-point jump in the 10-year yield implies a 3.5-percentage point rise in the funds rate, which would bring it close to 4%. That's high enough to kill the economic expansion that has been floating on a sea of readily-available and cheap credit.
In response to the 2008 financial crisis, the Fed introduced quantitative easing, which boosted its assets from $900 billion to $4.5 trillion. Then with the pandemic, the central bank's assets almost doubled to $8.9 trillion this month.
The bulk of all that money flowed into residential housing as well as stocks and many speculative financial assets. Ditto for the $3.75 trillion provided by the government in response to the pandemic.
The shift from the tsunami of central bank money to cuts in the Fed's hoard via quantitative tightening and the end of massive fiscal stimulus is a major shock to the economy.
The recession will curb credit demand and enhance the zeal for safe-havens, all to the benefit of Treasuries. Also, the robust dollar makes US government securities attractive to foreigners, as does the fact that the 10-year Treasury note has a higher yield than the sovereign debt in 13 of 18 developed countries.
In recent business cycles, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note peaked before a recession commenced. It topped out at 6.7% in June 2000, ahead of the 2001 recession. Similarly, it peaked at 5.1% in June 2006, 18 months before the 2007-2009 recession commenced.
Inflation may also have peaked. The Consumer Price Index rose 1.2% in March from a month earlier and eased back to gains of 0.3% in April and 1% in May. Similarly, the Producer Price Index rose 0.8% in May, down from March's 1.6% increase.
