In the Long Run, Moving to Cash When Markets Get Volatile Rarely Works Out

Commentary May 31, 2022 at 05:26 PM
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A natural response to market volatility is to move to the sidelines until it calms down. With stock and bond markets showing double-digit losses so far in 2022 and the S&P 500 reaching bear market territory on May 20 (down 20% from its peak), some investors are looking at cash as a safe haven. While it is true that cash is risk-free from a volatility standpoint, sitting on the sidelines in cash poses its own risks, primarily loss of opportunity costs and loss of purchasing power.

Cash or savings accounts yielding less than 1% when inflation is above 8% means your real return on cash is negative 7%. That's because the purchasing power of your cash has eroded as the price of things you want to buy has gone up due to inflation. Moving to cash also removes the opportunity to participate in the markets when they eventually rebound.

So, what should investors do? If you have already moved to cash, look for entry points to get back in. This could be during market dips or dollar cost averaging back into the markets over a set period of time, so you don't have to worry about picking a single day to invest.

If investors sold bonds because they dipped, many of those bonds are looking more attractive now that they have higher yields and a better risk/return profile than a few months ago. Floating rate bonds are also attractive in a rising rate environment as they have a short duration (less sensitive to interest rates) and automatically adjust to higher rates.

If investors sold out of some of their equity allocation, most of the stock market is on sale now, meaning that prices are down 10%, 20%, even 50% from earlier in the year. Now may be the time to deploy some of that cash back into areas of the stock market that have gotten overly discounted. High-quality companies, value companies and companies with sizable dividends can all make sense in this market environment and tend to be less volatile than more growth-oriented companies.

Another place to look is alternative investments, which can have very low correlations to stock and bond markets. Absolute return funds, merger arbitrage funds, and private equity and credit are all areas with much lower correlations to traditional stock and bond markets but can provide added sources of return.

Timing the market is nearly impossible, and waiting for the markets to look or feel safe will probably result in missing a market rebound. It's OK to shift allocations or rebalance portfolios as market conditions warrant. But historically, the best course has been to stick to your investment plan in good times and bad, and make sure your portfolio is aligned with your long-term goals.


Tim Clift is chief investment strategist of Envestnet Inc. (NYSE: ENV)

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