5 Worst States for Q1 COVID-19 Death Trends

The first quarter was a catastrophically bad quarter for U.S. COVID-19 deaths and deaths from all causes. The first reasonably complete first-quarter death totals from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention confirm the story earlier, incomplete CDC figures were telling: The total number of U.S. deaths from all causes was 24% higher than the total for the first quarter of 2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic. The number of confirmed deaths from COVID-19 might have decreased 17% from the 2021 total, to 143,281, according to the CDC's epidemic threshold tracking data. But that number could increase as mortality reports continue to gel, and the number of reported deaths from all causes fell just 2.5%, to 165,328. For the five states with the worst increases in the number of deaths involving confirmed cases of COVID-19 between the first quarter of 2021 and the latest quarter, based on CDC death count data, see the gallery above. For CDC death count data for all 50 states, see the table below.

What It Means

Ordinary people might be bored with COVID-19 and ready to worry about monkeypox. But monkeypox has not killed anyone in the United States, so far, and COVID-19 has had an enormous impact on the U.S. mortality rate for two straight years. In a normal year, before 2020, a health development that increased the number of U.S. deaths from all causes by 1% would have been considered shocking. Life and pension actuaries say that they are still thinking that the impact of COVID-19 might be short-lived, but agents and advisors with an interest life insurance planning, estate planning, retirement planning, pension administration or annuities need to make sure that any work they do reflects awareness of the possibility that COVID-19 could continue to have a significant effect on U.S. mortality and life expectancy figures.

The Numbers

The earliest U.S. mortality figures come from CDC pneumonia, influenza and COVID-19 tracking reports. The CDC uses the data to determine whether the number of deaths from an outbreak has met the epidemic threshold for the week. The CDC also collects state-by-state death statistics, which tend to take longer to firm up. The slideshow above and the table below are based on the United States COVID-19 Cases and Deaths by State Over Time reporting system. The earliest first state-by-state figures for the first quarter show that the number of deaths involving confirmed cases of COVID-19 increased in at least 23 states between the year-earlier quarter and the latest quarter.

Preliminary Q1 COVID-19 Death Totals