COVID-19 Drove 25% Increase in U.S. Deaths in January

The total number of U.S. deaths from all causes was about 25% higher in January than it was in January 2020, before the COVID-19 pandemic began increasing the mortality rate. The 50 states, New York City and the District of Columbia reported 374,225 deaths to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for the period from Jan. 2 through Feb. 5. That was down 10% from the total for the comparable period in 2021, when a deadly wave of COVID-19 cases swept the country, but it was up from 298,247 for the comparable period in 2020. The figures mean that the number of U.S. excess deaths, from all causes, was about 75,000 in the first five weeks of the year, down from about 116,000 in the comparable period in 2021. The CDC has classified 100,433 of the deaths recorded in the first five weeks of this year as being from COVID-19, and 129,027 as from COVID-19, pneumonia or influenza. The number of deaths caused by COVID-19, pneumonia or flu was 129,027 in the comparable period in 2021, and 22,423 in the comparable period in 2020. Many jurisdictions take several weeks to send the CDC complete mortality data, and there are signs that the numbers are taking longer to flow into the provisional death reports than usual. The latest reports, for example, include data for all of February for many states, but they include no 2022 data for the District of Columbia or Puerto Rico. The figures include deaths caused directly by COVID-19, deaths caused by the effects of the pandemic on the health care system, and deaths caused by the effects of the pandemic and pandemic-related restrictions on society as a whole.

Comparisons With Projections

Aegon executives said last month, on their conference call for the fourth quarter of 2021, that they are speculating that the U.S. might have about 300,000 COVID-19 deaths this year. Globe Life executives have said their midpoint COVID-19 mortality assumption for 2022 is 145,000 deaths, with most of the deaths occurring in the first half of the year.

Age and Mortality

The CDC has another batch of data, broken down by age, that shows that the latest wave of COVID-19 was especially hard on U.S. residents ages 75 and older: Between Dec. 26, 2020, and Jan. 29, confirmed cases of the disease caused 134 deaths per 100,000 people ages 75 and older. That means that in just over a month, the disease killed about 1 in 750 people in that age group. Health insurers have reported facing higher pandemic-related prevention and treatment costs during the latest wave. Information about the effects on life insurance claims is not yet available. For retirement specialists, the January wave raises the possibility that increased uncertainty about older clients' life expectancy continues amid the availability of COVID-19 vaccines and vaccine booster problems.

State Numbers

State numbers show that changes in the number of deaths between January 2020 and January 2022 ranged from a decrease of 39%, in South Dakota, up to an increase of more than 40% in three Mid-Atlantic states, with a median increase of 27%. For the five states with the biggest increases, see the gallery above. For data for all 50 states, the District of Columbia and New York City, see the chart below.

All-Cause Mortality for the First Five Weeks of the Year

	2020	2021	2022	Change: 2021 over 2020	Change: 2022 over 2020
Alabama	5,330	8,577	7,221	+61%	+35%
Alaska	475	519	429	+9%	-10%
Arizona	6,547	11,377	9,371	+74%	+43%
Arkansas	3,313	4,649	4,405	+40%	+33%
California	29,109	52,289	35,519	+80%	+22%
Colorado	4,220	4,935	5,601	+17%	+33%
Connecticut	3,242	4,171	3,978	+29%	+23%
Delaware	956	1374	1406	+44%	+47%
District of Columbia	674	854	NA	+27%	NA
Florida	21,942	28,143	26,916	+28%	+23%
Georgia	8,982	14,394	11,385	+60%	+27%
Hawaii	1,183	1,133	1,386	-4%	+17%
Idaho	1,387	1,681	1,911	+21%	+38%
Illinois	11,010	13,284	15,531	+21%	+41%
Indiana	7,047	8,923	9,019	+27%	+28%
Iowa	3,187	3,,595	3,849	+13%	+21%
Kansas	2,847	3,623	4,048	+27%	+42%
Kentucky	5,114	6,445	5,950	+26%	+16%
Louisiana	4,801	6,630	5,223	+38%	+9%
Maine	1,529	1,699	1,935	+11%	+27%
Maryland	5,109	6,750	7,028	+32%	+38%
Massachusetts	6,201	7,720	7,862	+24%	+27%
Michigan	10,025	11,577	13,182	+15%	+31%
Minnesota	4,802	5,072	5,592	+6%	+16%
Mississippi	3,165	4,921	4,486	+55%	+42%
Missouri	6,710	8,418	7,676	+25%	+14%
Montana	1,059	1,163	1,288	+10%	+22%
Nebraska	1,772	1,987	2,118	+12%	+20%
Nevada	2,791	4,063	3,902	+46%	+40%
New Hampshire	1,250	1,537	1,623	+23%	+30%
New Jersey	7,802	10,249	11,231	+31%	+44%
New Mexico	1,973	2,623	2,469	+33%	+25%
New York	10,476	14,858	13,878	+42%	+32%
New York City	5,774	7,737	8,709	+34%	+51%
North Carolina	9,865	14,507	8,450	+47%	-14%
North Dakota	748	754	572	+1%	-24%
Ohio	12,690	16,776	17,712	+32%	+40%
Oklahoma	4,210	6,098	5,683	+45%	+35%
Oregon	3,743	4,301	4,532	+15%	+21%
Pennsylvania	14,101	18,727	18,831	+33%	+34%
Rhode Island	1,049	1,432	1,321	+37%	+26%
South Carolina	5,278	8,012	5,964	+52%	+13%
South Dakota	821	992	497	+21%	-39%
Tennessee	8,021	11,058	10,545	+38%	+31%
Texas	21,441	34,068	23,455	+59%	+9%
Utah	1,993	2,482	2,490	+25%	+25%
Vermont	534	611	711	+14%	+33%
Virginia	7,404	10,188	10,246	+38%	+38%
Washington	6,042	6,802	7,406	+13%	+23%
West Virginia	2,412	3,218	1,743	+33%	-28%
Wisconsin	5,573	6,261	7,332	+12%	+32%
Wyoming	518	578	608	+12%	+17%
TOTAL	298,247	413,835	374,225
MEDIAN				+28%	+27%

Pictured: An intubated patient in a negative pressure room in the Covid-19 ICU at Freeman Hospital West in Joplin, Missouri, in August 2021. (Photo: Angus Mordant/Bloomberg)