How 2021 Birth Counts Are Shaping Up in the 5 Biggest States

Early figures from the National Center for Health Statistics suggest that U.S. residents may have resumed having babies in 2021. Because of the direct and indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, the number of live U.S. births plunged 4% between 2019 and 2020, to 3.6 million. But the number of live births recorded for the first three quarters of 2021 — from Jan. 1, 2021, through Sept. 30, 2021 — fell just 0.2% below the figure for the comparable period in 2020, according to provisional data from the National Center for Health Statistics, an arm of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. In the median state, the number of births crept up 0.07%. The year-over-year changes ranged from a decrease of 5.01%, in New Mexico, up to an increase of 5.93%, in New Hampshire.

What It Means

For life and annuity issuers, changes in birth counts could have an immediate effect on marketing campaigns. Consumers often think about buying life insurance and putting other financial arrangements in place, such as disability insurance, and even individual retirement accounts, when they go through a major life event, such as having a baby. The 2020 drop in the number of births could have contributed to the pandemic-related obstacles to helping people get covered. Ups and downs in the number of births could also have an immediate effect on sales of juvenile life insurance. Starting in the late 2040s, the pandemic-related birth slump could cut the number of young adults forming households, having their own children and getting serious about their own financial arrangements. But it's possible that the young adults joining the workforce then will have an easier time finding stable jobs, and that they will be able to pay more for the insurance and annuity products that they do buy.

The Data

Statisticians with the National Center for Health Statistics' National Vital Statistics System compile birth data by processing reports from U.S. states and other U.S. jurisdictions. Some jurisdictions take more time than others to complete filing their data. The National Vital Statistics System team published the final birth data for 2020 Monday. The team publishes the provisional monthly data on a separate website. The most recent data on the website at press time was for September. For the birth numbers, for the first three quarters of 2021, for the five states with the highest population, see the gallery above. For data for all 50 states, the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico, see the table below.

Early U.S. Birth Data for the First Three Quarters of 2021