5 States Where Dying People Are Most Likely to Be Working Age

Whatever the omicron variant of COVID-19 does to U.S. life insurance insurance claims, the delta variant and its siblings have been continuing to drive up the number of deaths of working-age Americans. Some life and health insurers reported that an enormous surge of COVID-19 deaths appeared in September and then seemed to end quickly. A look at weekly death count data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention shows that, from 2015 through 2019, about 12,900 people ages 25 through 64 died, from all causes, in a typical week. In September, the number climbed more than 7,000, or more than 50%, over the median. That total includes both people killed directly by COVID-19 and by the effects of the pandemic on the health care system, the economy and U.S. society as a whole. The all-cause mortality gap fell to about 23% over the typical level in October, and was still 18% over the typical level in November.

The Context

The death rate of people ages 25 through 64 is of keen interest to life insurers, because people in that age group are more likely than older or younger people to buy large amounts of life insurance to protect their families against the risk of death. Increases in all-cause mortality help pension plans and long-term care insurance issuers, by reducing the size of benefits obligations. In theory, increases in mortality could also help issuers of individual annuities, but many individual annuities sold in the United States provide death benefits, and the cost of paying death benefits often offsets the gains resulting from decreases in benefits obligations. About 3.4 million of the 14 million U.S. residents who died from 2015 through 2019 were in the 25-64 age group. This year, about 810,000 of the 3.1 million people who have died, or 26%, have been in the 25-64 age group. In November, at the state level, the percentage of all deaths involving people in the 25-64 age group ranged from 16.2%, in Delaware, up to 30%, in two states. For a look at the five states with the highest percentage of working-age deaths in November as a percentage of all deaths that month, see the gallery above. For data for all 50 states and the District of Columbia, see the table below. Going just be the numbers, the District of Columbia should top our list of jurisdictions ranked in terms of working-age deaths as a percentage of all deaths. We excluded the district from state rankings, because it is much more like a city in terms of its population age distribution and other characteristics than it is like a state. We're showing November data here, rather than December data, because many states take several weeks to get their data in. Any CDC death numbers for December are likely to change dramatically in the next few weeks as updates flow in. ....

U.S. Deaths From All Causes, in November

x	Ages 25-64	All Ages	Working-Age Deaths, as a Percentage of All Deaths
Alabama	1,104	4,351	25.4%
Alaska	77	331	23.3%
Arizona	1,623	6,690	24.3%
Arkansas	767	2,904	26.4%
California	5,461	22,235	24.6%
Colorado	1,210	4,517	26.8%
Connecticut	429	1,937	22.1%
Delaware	143	883	16.2%
District of Columbia	132	427	30.9%
Florida	4,168	17,645	23.6%
Georgia	1,852	7,156	25.9%
Hawaii	152	836	18.2%
Idaho	382	1,575	24.3%
Illinois	2,252	9,508	23.7%
Indiana	1,315	6,085	21.6%
Iowa	508	2,740	18.5%
Kansas	516	2,416	21.4%
Kentucky	986	4,029	24.5%
Louisiana	764	3,417	22.4%
Maine	328	1,543	21.3%
Maryland	967	4,064	23.8%
Massachusetts	995	4,955	20.1%
Michigan	2,567	11,104	23.1%
Minnesota	860	4,549	18.9%
Mississippi	767	2,813	27.3%
Missouri	1,230	5,626	21.9%
Montana	273	1,137	24.0%
Nebraska	309	1,525	20.3%
Nevada	678	2,509	27.0%
New Hampshire	244	1,196	20.4%
New Jersey	1,374	6,482	21.2%
New Mexico	593	1,975	30.0%
New York	1,941	9,451	20.5%
New York City	1,238	4,750	26.1%
North Carolina	1,668	5,566	30.0%
North Dakota	193	697	27.7%
Ohio	3,103	12,323	25.2%
Oklahoma	838	3,084	27.2%
Oregon	707	3,152	22.4%
Pennsylvania	2,876	12,705	22.6%
Puerto Rico	676	3,038	22.3%
Rhode Island	145	789	18.4%
South Carolina	1,021	3,810	26.8%
South Dakota	151	751	20.1%
Tennessee	1,908	6,720	28.4%
Texas	4,791	17,676	27.1%
Utah	511	2,002	25.5%
Vermont	114	566	20.1%
Virginia	1,610	6,633	24.3%
Washington	1,253	5,393	23.2%
West Virginia	NA	NA	-
Wisconsin	1,157	5,303	21.8%
Wyoming	99	520	19.0%
TOTAL	61,026	254,089	x
MEDIAN	x	x	23.6%

.. Pictured: A chart, based on CDC unweighted death count data, showing what has happened to the number of deaths of people ages 25 through 64, per week, since 2015. (Image: Allison Bell/ALM)