Commercial health insurance provisions in H.R. 5376 — the Democrats' Build Back Better social spending package — could reduce the number of uninsured Americans by about 3.9 million, or about 14%, in 2031, according to new estimates from the Congressional Budget Office.
Calculations based on the CBO predictions suggest that the provisions could cost an average of about $14,000 per year, over the next 10 years, for every additional person who was insured in 2031.
The fate of this package could affect what health insurance professionals have to sell later this year.
The fate of the package could also affect what other financial professionals will be telling clients under age 65 about pre-retirement health care cost planning.
Build Back Better Basics
The Build Back Better bill is one of two big packages of legislation that Democrats are trying to maneuver through the House and Senate.
The Build Back Better bill includes many social program provisions, including a section that could add dental insurance and vision insurance to the traditional Medicare program.
The other package, the American Jobs Plan package, would provide cash for roads, bridges, flood control projects and other physical infrastructure.
Federal fiscal 2022 started Oct. 1. The official federal government budget shows that the government could generate about $4.2 trillion in revenue this year and spend about $6 trillion.
President Joe Biden has estimated that his version of the Build Back Better package could cost about $3.5 trillion over 10 years, or about $350 billion per year. That would amount to about 5% of the annual spending now in the official budget forecasts.
Some Democrats in Congress have backed versions that could cost about $7 trillion over 10 years. Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., has said that he would like to hold the total cost to $1.5 trillion.
The Big Picture
The CBO is an agency that helps members of Congress analyze legislation and government operations.
A CBO team worked with analysts from another arm of Congress, the Joint Committee on Taxation, to prepare the new Build Back Better health insurance provision analysis at the request of Rep. Jason Smith, R-Mo.
Smith is the highest-ranking Republican on the House Budget Committee.
The CBO and Joint Committee on Taxation analysts operate under strict rules that require them to predict what will happen to the U.S. economy and federal government operations over time, then estimate how legislation will affect the "baseline estimates."
For Smith, the analysts looked only at the effects of major Build Back Better package provisions that are likely to affect health insurance for people under age 65. The analysts did not look at the provisions that affect Medicare or Medicaid benefits for people 65 and older.
The analysts predicted those provisions would increase the federal budget deficit by about $11 billion this year, $42 billion in federal fiscal 2023, and $77 billion in 2031.
The bill could increase the deficit by a total of $553 billion over the period from 2022 through 2031, according to the analysts.
