5 States Where Young-Adult Deaths Are Spiking

The state mortality numbers for the first half of September are starting to firm up, and the figures for people ages 25 through 44 look especially bad. The numbers mean that the pandemic could have more of an effect on life insurers that insure the lives of working-age people, not just for insurers that sell final expense arrangements, or other products aimed at people ages 65 and older. For health insurers, COVID-19 spikes have tended to have a nearly neutral effect, because reductions in claims for routine care mostly offset any increases in the cost of caring for people with COVID-19. But life insurers have reported that earlier COVID-19 spikes have had a noticeable effect on life insurance claim costs, even when the spikes were having a modest effect on the death rate for people under age 65. In the first two weeks ending in September, the number of deaths of U.S. residents in the 25-44 age group spiked to 8,604. The number of deaths of people in that age group was 22% higher than it was during the comparable period, and 57% higher than it was during the comparable period in 2019 — before the COVID-19 pandemic began. In the first half of 2021, which included the January spike, the number of deaths of people in the 25-44 age group was 38% higher than in the first half of 2019. There are about 87.4 million people in the 25-44 age group in the United States, according to the Census Bureau. In recent years, the typical death rate for people in the 25-44 age group has been about one death per 580 people per year. In the first half of September, the death rate increased to the annualized equivalent of about one per 370 people. For the five states with the worst increases in the number of deaths of people ages 25 to 44, for the first two weeks ending in September, between 2019 and 2021, based on the unweighted CDC data for the weeks included, see the slideshow above. For data for all 50 states, based on the CDC's unweighted data, see the table below.

Other Age Groups

The COVID-19 delta variant also led to an increase in the death rate for Americans in other age groups, but the picture for the 25-44 age group was worse than the picture for the rest of the population. The total number of deaths of people in all age groups for the first two weeks ending in September increased about 36% from the count for the comparable period in 2019, to 141,860. Vaccination efforts, social distancing efforts and other factors held the rate of increase for people in older age groups. For people ages 85 and older, for example, the number of deaths in the first two weeks ending in September, increased just 15%, to 36,213.

Data Woes

The federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention puts state-by-state death counts, broken down by age, in spreadsheets that are updated weekly. Many states take months or years to send the CDC complete data, but the figures start to look reasonably complete by about four or five weeks after the end of the period covered in the reports. Many states — including Alaska, Delaware, North Dakota, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Vermont, West Virginia and Wyoming — have 25-44 age group figures that are missing for 2019, for 2021, or for both years. Other states may have figures that look like final figures but that are incomplete and will be revised in the future.

Possible Reasons

The CDC weekly data totals include the effects of the virus that causes COVID-19 along with the effects of all other causes of death. Some of the increase in deaths of people ages 25 through 44 could be the results of the virus itself. The increase could also reflect the effects of the pandemic on hospitals' ability to care for people with conditions other than COVID-19. A temporary boost in federal support for extra unemployment insurance benefits ended around Labor Day, and the increase in mortality could be due partly to the impact of increased economic stress due to cuts in unemployment insurance and other pandemic-related support programs.

Deaths of people ages 25-44 in the First Two Weeks Ending in September
	2019	2020	2021
Alabama	105	136	219
Alaska	NA	33	NA
Arizona	116	203	272
Arkansas	57	83	104
California	564	696	881
Colorado	100	138	151
Connecticut	57	63	17
Delaware	11	12	NA
District of Columbia	NA	26	25
Florida	369	478	851
Georgia	163	267	317
Hawaii	15	12	30
Idaho	13	37	40
Illinois	228	235	262
Indiana	148	139	125
Iowa	38	49	39
Kansas	52	63	73
Kentucky	96	145	102
Louisiana	130	151	101
Maine	15	24	29
Maryland	120	156	130
Massachusetts	107	117	123
Michigan	144	190	257
Minnesota	63	87	61
Mississippi	64	92	120
Missouri	137	157	108
Montana	13	13	30
Nebraska	18	11	24
Nevada	57	73	106
New Hampshire	27	14	35
New Jersey	126	153	160
New Mexico	68	74	75
New York	121	175	216
New York City	110	151	161
North Carolina	188	242	177
North Dakota	NA	NA	12
Ohio	232	274	348
Oklahoma	79	84	128
Oregon	74	81	99
Pennsylvania	258	293	271
Puerto Rico	65	62	77
Rhode Island	NA	16	NA
South Carolina	124	154	195
South Dakota	NA	20	NA
Tennessee	158	209	356
Texas	438	605	1,052
Utah	51	50	78
Vermont	NA	11	13
Virginia	123	181	209
Washington	97	116	188
West Virginia	55	68	NA
Wisconsin	89	94	128
Wyoming	NA	11	29
TOTAL	5,483	7,024	8,604
Source: CDC, Weekly Counts of Deaths by Jurisdiction and Age,

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