50 States of Data on Plummeting 2020 Birth Rates

By Allison Bell

Slideshow October 07, 2021 at 09:09 AM

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The COVID-19 pandemic has killed more than 700,000 people in the United States, and it may have also reduced the number of live U.S. births by more than 100,000. Analysts at the National Center for Health Statistics talk about the sharp drop in the birth rate in a new paper based on final 2020 "natality" data, and in an earlier paper, based on provisional data, that was released in June. The plummeting birth rate could be having an immediate effect on any efforts to market life insurance and disability insurance to new parents, and it may affect sales and underwriting for those products and other products for decades to come. The rapid drop could also make U.S. demographers' "population pyramid" diagrams look like pine cones. A pyramid diagram uses horizontal lines to represent the size of each age group included. The oldest age groups go on top, and the youngest at the bottom. U.S. birth totals have been dropping, gradually, for years. The new plunge could make the base much narrow. Starting in 2035, when the people born in 2021 start to enter the workforce, managers of Social Security will have to take the small size of that age group into effect when assessing the program's revenue stream and benefits obligations.

The Data

The teams found that the U.S. general fertility rate dropped 4% in 2020, to 56 births per 1,000 women ages 15-44, from 2019 to 2020.The fertility rate was down for just about every major group of women the researchers looked at. Most of the babies conceived after the pandemic flared in the United States were born in September 2020 or later. Some women may have intentionally put off conceiving babies because of concerns about the pandemic, access to routine prenatal care, and access to hospital delivery rooms. In other cases, it's possible that COVID-19 infections or lockdown-related stress may have reduced conception rates. The new paper is a sequel to a report that Martin and other researchers released in June. In the earlier paper, the researchers said:

The number of babies born in the United States fell 5% between 2019 and 2020, to 3.6 million.
Between the second half of 2019 and the second half of 2020, the number of live births fell 6%.
In one state, the number of babies born between the second half of 2019 and the second half of 2020 fell 11%.

For a look at the five states with the biggest percentage decreases in the number of live births between the second half of 2019 and the second half of 2020, see the slideshow above. For birth data for all 50 states and the District of Columbia, see the chart below.

The Predictions

MetLife suggested in February, based on short-term disability insurance plan leave data, that the number of births involving mothers with short-term disability coverage could fall about 20%. The Brookings Institution predicted, based on analysis of trends after the 1918 flu pandemic, that the pandemic could cut the number of 2021 births by more than 300,0000 in 2021. The final birth figures suggest that natality fell in 202, but probably less than what the Brookings and MetLife forecasters predicted.

U.S. Births, in 2019 and 2020
	Total for the Year			January-June			July-December
	2019	2020	Change, 2019-2020, in Percent	2019	2020	Change, 2019-2020, in Percent	2019	2020	Change, 2019-2020, in Percent
Alabama	58,615	57,634	-2	27,778	28,052	1	30,837	29,582	-4
Alaska	9,822	9,447	-4	4,881	4,706	-4	4,941	4,741	-4
Arizona	79,375	76,923	-3	38,168	37,439	-2	41,207	39,484	-4
Arkansas	36,564	35,210	-4	17,439	17,185	-1	19,125	18,025	-6
California	446,479	419,612	-6	216,456	207,015	-4	230,023	212,597	-8
Colorado	62,869	61,493	-2	30,590	30,528	0	32,279	30,965	-4
Connecticut	34,258	33,448	-2	16,752	16,613	-1	17,506	16,835	-4
Delaware	10,562	10,336	-2	4,963	5,050	2	5,599	5,286	-6
District of Columbia	9,079	8,858	-2	4,364	4,461	2	4,715	4,397	-7
Florida	220,002	209,612	-5	105,184	102,477	-3	114,818	107,135	-7
Georgia	126,371	122,266	-3	60,855	60,027	-1	65,516	62,239	-5
Hawaii	16,797	15,730	-6	8,191	7,827	-4	8,606	7,903	-8
Idaho	22,063	21,520	-2	10,896	10,642	-2	11,167	10,878	-3
Illinois	140,128	133,207	-5	68,353	66,094	-3	71,775	67,113	-6
Indiana	80,859	78,087	-3	38,992	38,842	0	41,867	39,245	-6
Iowa	37,649	36,080	-4	18,518	18,018	-3	19,131	18,062	-6
Kansas	35,395	34,360	-3	17,130	16,922	-1	18,265	17,438	-5
Kentucky	53,069	51,581	-3	25,520	25,215	-1	27,549	26,366	-4
Louisiana	58,941	57,070	-3	27,849	27,631	-1	31,092	29,439	-5
Maine	11,779	11,532	-2	5,772	5,683	-2	6,007	5,849	-3
Maryland	70,178	68,523	-2	34,035	34,010	0	36,143	34,513	-5
Massachusetts	69,117	66,429	-4	33,601	33,376	-1	35,516	33,053	-7
Michigan	107,886	103,846	-4	53,014	52,249	-1	54,872	51,597	-6
Minnesota	66,027	63,387	-4	32,474	31,797	-2	33,553	31,590	-6
Mississippi	36,636	35,457	-3	17,233	17,190	0	19,403	18,267	-6
Missouri	72,127	69,238	-4	35,046	34,232	-2	37,081	35,006	-6
Montana	11,079	10,785	-3	5,546	5,498	-1	5,533	5,287	-4
Nebraska	24,755	24,235	-2	12,152	12,080	-1	12,603	12,155	-4
Nevada	35,072	33,632	-4	16,798	16,350	-3	18,274	17,282	-5
New Hampshire	11,839	11,773	-1	5,732	5,785	1	6,107	5,988	-2
New Jersey	99,585	96,543	-3	48,245	48,387	0	51,340	48,156	-6
New Mexico	22,960	21,316	-7	11,048	10,739	-3	11,912	10,577	-11
New York	221,539	209,172	-6	107,791	105,506	-2	113,748	103,666	-9
North Carolina	118,725	116,674	-2	57,371	57,402	0	61,354	59,272	-3
North Dakota	10,454	10,059	-4	5,275	5,017	-5	5,179	5,042	-3
Ohio	134,461	129,071	-4	65,303	63,862	-2	69,158	65,209	-6
Oklahoma	49,143	47,393	-4	23,607	23,286	-1	25,536	24,107	-6
Oregon	41,858	39,792	-5	20,937	19,993	-5	20,921	19,799	-5
Pennsylvania	134,230	130,562	-3	65,204	64,658	-1	69,026	65,904	-5
Rhode Island	10,175	10,102	-1	4,993	5,066	1	5,182	5,036	-3
South Carolina	57,038	55,693	-2	27,515	27,150	-1	29,523	28,543	-3
South Dakota	11,449	10,952	-4	5,686	5,519	-3	5,763	5,433	-6
Tennessee	80,450	78,659	-2	38,715	38,240	-1	41,735	40,419	-3
Texas	377,599	365,857	-3	179,973	178,369	-1	197,626	187,488	-5
Utah	46,826	45,702	-2	23,175	23,084	0	23,651	22,618	-4
Vermont	5,361	5,117	-5	2,689	2,574	-4	2,672	2,543	-5
Virginia	97,429	94,391	-3	47,295	46,848	-1	50,134	47,543	-5
Washington	84,895	83,067	-2	42,165	41,481	-2	42,730	41,586	-3`
West Virginia	18,136	17,159	-5	8,767	8,510	-3	9,369	8,649	-8
Wisconsin	63,270	60,491	-4	31,144	30,528	-2	32,126	29,963	-7
Wyoming	6,565	6,118	-7	3,317	3,024	-9	3,248	3,094	-5
TOTAL	3,747,540	3,605,201	-4	1,814,497	1,782,237	-2	1,933,043	1,822,964	-6
Source: Declines in Births by Month: United States, 2020