50 States of New Actual-To-Expected Death Data
Related: 5 Worst States for COVID-19 Mortality Change Now
For now, the U.S. death counts for mid-September look good — because they're probably incomplete. Analysts are showing that the total number of U.S. deaths fell to 50,299 for the week ending Sept. 18, down from 65 465 for the week ending Aug. 21, and that the number of people listed as dying from COVID-19 fell to 9,929, from 11,476. The ratio of actual deaths to "expected deaths" fell to 101% in the typical state, from 125% a month earlier, But one other key statistic went in a bad direction: the percentage of all deaths attributed to COVID-19. That percentage increased to 15.8% on Sept. 18, down from 11.6% a month earlier. In seven states, the percentage of deaths attributed to the pandemic jumped 10 percentage points or more between August and September. That might be a sign that overall COVID-19 mortality also jumped in September, and that any apparent easing of pandemic intensity has to do with data reporting problems, rather than a real decrease in pandemic intensity. Before the COVID-19 pandemic came along, a factor that increased the ratio of the actual number of deaths to the expected number by more than 1% for more than a few weeks would have been considered noteworthy. Increased mortality can have the biggest immediate impact on life, health and annuity issuers by increasing life insurance death benefits payouts, and by decreasing pension and long-term care insurance benfits obligations. Increased mortality may also decrease individual annuity obligations, but that effect tends to be relatively small, because many contracts offer death-related benefits. For a look at the five states where the percentage of deaths attributed to COVID-19 increased the most, see the slideshow above. For a look at data for all 50 states and the District of Columbia, see the chart below. — Related on ThinkAdvisor:
- The 10 States Facing the Worst CDC COVID-19 Mortality Forecasts
- Early COVID-19 Spike Drove Up High-Income People's Mortality, Too: Researchers
- 5 States Where COVID-19 Hospitalizations Are Surging
Total Deaths, COVID-19 Deaths and the Percentage of All Deaths Caused by COVID-19 | |||||||||
| Jurisdiction | COVID-19 Deaths | Total Deaths | Ratio of Actual Deaths to Expected | Percentage of Total Deaths Caused by COVID-19 | COVID-19 Deaths | Total Deaths | Ratio of Actual Deaths to Expected | Percentage of Total Deaths Caused by COVID-19 | Change in the Percentage of Deaths Caused by COVID-19, in percentage points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (Week ending Aug. 21) | (Week ending Sept. 18) | ||||||||
| Alabama | 404 | 1,492 | 157% | 27.1% | 343 | 1,074 | 112% | 31.9% | 4.9 |
| Alaska | 20 | 113 | 125% | 17.7% | NA | 25 | 31% | NA | NA |
| Arizona | 172 | 1,478 | 145% | 11.6% | 213 | 1,335 | 126% | 16.0% | 4.3 |
| Arkansas | 224 | 834 | 147% | 26.9% | 134 | 685 | 111% | 19.6% | -7.3 |
| California | 798 | 6,125 | 130% | 13.0% | 639 | 4,109 | 87% | 15.6% | 2.5 |
| Colorado | 84 | 907 | 129% | 9.3% | 87 | 771 | 105% | 11.3% | 2.0 |
| Connecticut | 21 | 488 | 90% | 4.3% | 13 | 114 | 20% | 11.4% | 7.1 |
| Delaware | 19 | 210 | 125% | 9.0% | 30 | 148 | 88% | 20.3% | 11.2 |
| District of Columbia | 13 | 114 | 99% | 11.4% | NA | 40 | 35% | NA | NA |
| Florida | 2,579 | 7,094 | 193% | 36.4% | 1,504 | 4,855 | 127% | 31.0% | -5.4 |
| Georgia | 645 | 2,263 | 142% | 28.5% | 501 | 1,483 | 94% | 33.8% | 5.3 |
| Hawaii | 32 | 298 | 144% | 10.7% | 27 | 183 | 77% | 14.8% | 4.0 |
| Idaho | 45 | 341 | 139% | 13.2% | 119 | 377 | 146% | 31.6% | 18.4 |
| Illinois | 198 | 2,250 | 121% | 8.8% | 238 | 2,000 | 101% | 11.9% | 3.1 |
| Indiana | 159 | 1,405 | 118% | 11.3% | 197 | 999 | 83% | 19.7% | 8.4 |
| Iowa | 47 | 620 | 120% | 7.6% | 80 | 526 | 96% | 15.2% | 7.6 |
| Kansas | 85 | 619 | 133% | 13.7% | 83 | 538 | 113% | 15.4% | 1.7 |
| Kentucky | 199 | 1,073 | 125% | 18.5% | 232 | 725 | 81% | 32.0% | 13.5 |
| Louisiana | 374 | 1,162 | 138% | 32.2% | 135 | 535 | 61% | 25.2% | -7.0 |
| Maine | 10 | 306 | 114% | 3.3% | 28 | 317 | 116%5 | 8.8% | 5.6 |
| Maryland | 57 | 929 | 102% | 6.1% | 105 | 962 | 107% | 10.9% | 4.8 |
| Massachusetts | 34 | 1,118 | 106% | 3.0% | 64 | 1,051 | 98% | 6.1% | 3.0_ |
| Michigan | 109 | 2,021 | 115% | 5.4% | 170 | 1,778 | 101% | 9.6% | 4.2 |
| Minnesota | 32 | 830 | 105% | 3.9% | 75 | 758 | 92% | 9.9% | 6.0 |
| Mississippi | 310 | 940 | 166% | 33.0% | 185 | 703 | 119% | 26.3% | -6.7 |
| Missouri | 296 | 1,498 | 127% | 19.8% | 205 | 1,109 | 94% | 18.5% | -1.3 |
| Montana | 46 | 270 | 147% | 17.0% | 48 | 254 | 137% | 18.9% | 1.9 |
| Nebraska | 38 | 333 | 109% | 11.4% | 25 | 216 | 69% | 11.6% | 0.2 |
| Nevada | 177 | 693 | 152% | 25.5% | 128 | 508 | 109% | 25.2% | -0.3 |
| New Hampshire | NA | 255 | 111% | NA | 14 | 273 | 116% | 5.1% | NA |
| New Jersey | 87 | 1,439 | 111% | 6.0% | 118 | 1,402 | 106% | 8.4% | 2.4 |
| New Mexico | 48 | 402 | 119% | 11.9% | 43 | 273 | 83% | 15.8% | 3.8 |
| New York | 118 | 1,971 | 109% | 6.0% | 209 | 2,153 | 122% | 9.7% | 3.7 |
| New York City | 67 | 1,087 | 111% | 6.2% | 66 | 1,016 | 104% | 6.5% | 0.3 |
| North Carolina | 333 | 1,032 | 60% | 32.3% | 64 | 492 | 29% | 13.0% | -19.3 |
| North Dakota | NA | 84 | 59% | NA | 10 | 152 | 107% | 6.6% | NA |
| Ohio | 200 | 2,470 | 111% | 8.1% | 275 | 1,706 | 74% | 16.1% | 8.0 |
| Oklahoma | 241 | 1,051 | 149% | 22.9% | 170 | 673 | 93% | 25.3% | 2.3 |
| Oregon | 142 | 903 | 136% | 15.7% | 129 | 562 | 88% | 23.0% | 7.2 |
| Pennsylvania | 129 | 2,589 | 108% | 5.0% | 271 | 2,562 | 104% | 10.6% | 5.6 |
| Puerto Rico | 88 | 546 | 100% | 16.1% | 50 | 236 | 42% | 21.2% | 5.1 |
| Rhode Island | NA | 203 | 110% | NA | NA | 56 | 30% | NA | NA |
| South Carolina | 263 | 1,319 | 148% | 19.9% | 288 | 922 | 102% | 31.2% | 11.3 |
| South Dakota | 10 | 155 | 105% | 6.5% | 10 | 97 | 63% | 10.3% | 3.9 |
| Tennessee | 360 | 1,891 | 145% | 19.0% | 561 | 1,708 | 123% | 32.8% | 13.8 |
| Texas | 1,738 | 6,045 | 165% | 28.8% | 1,276 | 3,844 | 104% | 33.2% | 4.4 |
| Utah | 63 | 462 | 135% | 13.6% | 83 | 459 | 135% | 18.1% | 4.4 |
| Vermont | NA | 119 | 112% | NA | NA | 119 | 117% | 0.0% | NA |
| Virginia | 141 | 1,582 | 129% | 8.9% | 248 | 1,471 | 119% | 16.9% | 7.9 |
| Washington | 153 | 1,311 | 127% | 11.7% | 216 | 974 | 97% | 22.2% | 10.5 |
| West Virginia | 34 | 36 | 9% | 94.4% | 85 | 87 | 21% | 97.7% | 3.3 |
| Wisconsin | 73 | 1,132 | 120% | 6.4% | 136 | 1,025 | 103% | 13.3% | 6.8 |
| Wyoming | 15 | 103 | 129% | 14.6% | 32 | 95 | 106% | 33.7% | 19.1 |
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