Jobs Slowdown Is 'Next Shoe to Drop': Schwab Strategists

She also said "economic surprise" indexes' recent rise was seen by some as a "legitimate improvement. But what some don't see in the Citi Economic Surprise Index is it has a higher concentration of lagging economic indicators." Instead she looks at Bloomberg's surprise index, which breaks down subsets of indicators, including leading indicators, "and that has been more subdued."

Regarding global indicators, Sonders said some indicators may mean the worst is past for the United States, "at least at how it relates to the rest of the world."

She also noted other "soft" data signals uncertainty with the trade war. She says that for the China trade deal, she questions whether that will be enough there to "rein in the animal spirits." She noted it was hard to see where a trade deal would ignite the capital spending cycle. "Stabilization is best we can hope for at this point," she said.

The National Association for Business Economists survey asked about the biggest downside risk for the U.S. economy; half of the respondents said trade, Sonders said.

"We have been neutral to U.S. equities the last couple years — which means we're telling investors to stay in a normal long-term strategic allocation …. But reality it could go either way."

Impact has been seen more in manufacturing side, "but we have seen some morphing, particularly in the employment channel," she said.

Plans to hire have ticked up, but keep an eye on small-business hiring, because it brings in more jobs than big companies. "If we start to see an uptick in the unemployment report, that could send a message," she said.

She cited another Consumer Confidence Report in which consumers were asked "how do you feel right now?" and "how do you expect to feel six months down the road?" She noted that the last reading showed current expectations went up while future expectations went down. This too is a warning, she says although it's too early to tell.

CEO confidence was down dramatically as well. "The key is keeping it from leaking into the consumer side," she said.

She finished by showing a chart of smart money vs. dumb money. Right now, smart money — which is almost always right, she said — is more pessimistic than dumb money.