Leading Indicators Show Glowing Growth Ahead: Conference Board

By Marlene Satter

News December 21, 2018 at 05:30 PM

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The Conference Board's leading economic index for the U.S. rose 0.2% in November to 111.8 (2016 = 100), after it fell 0.3% in October and rose 0.6% in September.

"The LEI increased slightly in November, but its overall pace of improvement has slowed in the last two months," Ataman Ozyildirim, director of economic research at The Conference Board, said in a statement.

Ozyildirim added, "Despite the recent volatility in stock prices, the strengths among the leading indicators have been widespread. Solid GDP growth at about 2.8% should continue in early 2019, but the LEI suggests the economy is likely to moderate further in the second half of 2019."

The Coincident Economic Index for the U.S. rose 0.2% in November to 104.9 (2016 = 100), after it had risen 0.1% in October and 0.2% in September.

In addition, the Lagging Economic Index for the U.S. rose 0.4% in November to 106.0 (2016 = 100), after it had risen 0.5% in October but fallen 0.2% in September.

The composite economic indexes are part of an analysis designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle, and are essentially composite averages of several individual leading, coincident or lagging indicators. They are intended to smooth out some of the volatility of the individual components.

The 10 elements making up the indexes are average weekly hours, manufacturing; average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance; manufacturers' new orders, consumer goods and materials; ISM Index of New Orders; manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders; building permits, new private housing units; stock prices, 500 common stocks; Leading Credit Index; interest rate spread, 10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds; and average consumer expectations for business conditions.

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