JPMorgan, BlackRock Say Troubled Trump May Hit Emerging Markets

"The motive behind Trump's actions is sometimes hard to understand, but looking tough to the world is something that goes well with his America First policy and bodes well to his constituency," said Pablo Goldberg, a money manager at BlackRock Inc. in New York.

Mike Pence, first in line for the presidency if Trump were impeached, would bring a "significantly higher degree of certainty" on U.S. trade and foreign policy, according to Sonja Gibbs, a senior director at the Institute of International Finance in Washington. By definition, that's a more hospitable environment for emerging markets, she said.

For now, a more hawkish foreign strategy from Washington may not hurt all developing nations. The White House will probably want to score some victories before the November midterm elections, while it ups the ante on other fronts — like the trade tussle with China. One potential winner: Mexico, where officials say progress has been made toward a new Nafta deal, Gibbs said.

But it may be an exception.

"I fear the contagion risk to real economic activity," said Chris Diaz, a money manager at Janus Capital Management in Denver, citing Trump's measures on China and Turkey. "EM was already under some pressure due to the Fed removing liquidity, rising rates and some idiosyncratic issues. Then Trump is exacerbating the situation."