As a long-term resident of Spain, British ex-pat John Barlow had no hand in his country's decision to leave the European Union. That doesn't mean he'll escape the consequences.
Like thousands of British retirees living in European Union countries, Barlow, 72, could lose access to his private pension unless U.K. and European negotiators reach a deal that allows the payments to continue after Brexit. With less than a year before the official exit date, the two sides haven't even started discussing the issue of cross-border financial services, leaving pensioners like Barlow unsure about the future.
"I rely entirely upon these pensions," said Barlow, who has been living in Madrid for 36 years. "If the pension payments stopped, I'd have to sell the house in Madrid and live on the proceeds."
There are 38 million people living in Europe outside Britain who have policies with U.K. insurers, according to Nicky Morgan, chair of Parliament's Treasury Committee. That includes many expatriates with private pensions who are covered under so-called passporting rules for financial companies that probably won't survive the cut after Britain leaves. Spain hosts the greatest number of U.K. citizens over 65, followed by France, according to data compiled by ONS and Eurostat.
Without a deal, insurers and pension providers would be legally barred from sending out payments, leaving policies dormant on their accounts. The government of Prime Minister Theresa May currently isn't even pushing to retain passporting rights after Brexit and U.K. financial companies have largely given up hope that it will be part of a final deal.
While a transition period that lasts until December 2020 should provide more time for the U.K. to redefine its trading relationship with the EU, pensions are likely to get caught up in the contentious debate over access by British financial companies to European markets.
'Cliff-Edge'
"It's not clear whether payments could still be made if we have a cliff-edge," said Mathew Rutter, insurance advisory partner at DAC Beachcroft LLP. "It's actually down to the laws of each individual member state."
State pensions aren't dependent on the same passporting rules to operate, so Brexit doesn't pose the same risk to those payments.