A Brand New Election Theory: Sicker Counties Swung for Trump

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"One of many possible explanations is that these communities are more distressed and really wanted something very different than what was seen before," Wasfy said, stressing that the study doesn't seek to explain the reason behind the pattern it identifies.

In the 12% that shifted away from the Republican ticket, Wasfy said, something stuck out. "The communities that went away from Republican voting were much healthier in public health terms," he said. Their health was better than both the average and the Trump-shifting counties.

The data don't explain individual voting habits, the paper notes, so it's unclear who exactly—healthier or sicker voters—shifted their votes and who, for example, simply stayed home on election day. And while "sicker populations shifting votes to the Republican candidate may represent voters voting against their self-interests," with Trump's promise to repeal the Affordable Care Act, further research would be needed to address that issue, the paper says. The authors are careful to note an important limit on their analysis, that "unmeasured social factors confounded these results."

The impact of social factors, from Russian bots to economic inequality to racism, will remain the subject of debate for some time to come. Politicians and pundits can now add another one to the list: public health.

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