World’s Biggest Wealth Fund Hits $1T

The decline in costs comes despite the fund's expansion into real estate. It's snapped up prime properties in Times Square, the Champs Elysees and London's Regent Street, among other locations. It owned 200 billion kroner ($26 billion) in real estate at the end of June.

For now, there's been little discussion about breaking the fund up into smaller, more nimble entities, though the government is currently pondering a proposal to shift it out of the central bank and strengthen oversight.

So what lies ahead? Norway expects the fund to keep growing through 2025, when it's predicted to hit 10.5 trillion kroner (or $1.3 trillion at today's exchange rate). But such estimates are notoriously unreliable. Its current size already exceeds the milestone it wasn't expected to reach until 2018.

First Withdrawal

With interest rates at record lows and returns hard to come by, the fund's management is growing less optimistic. Central Bank Governor Oystein Olsen has warned the decline in oil prices means the fund may already have passed its peak.

Norway's government last year made direct withdrawals from the fund for the first time in its history and is expected to take out about 70 billion kroner this year. Meanwhile, Norway has lowered the fund's expected return to 3 percent from 4 percent.  

The fund has been given permission to raise its stock holdings to 70 percent from 60 percent, with an equivalent cut in bonds. That could help it eke out higher returns, or at least maintain the 8 percent annualized real return it's had over the past five years.

But Slyngstad also recently said he sees fundamental issues with the global economic system and trade, which is being buffeted by increasing global political risk. And that's not good for a fund that owns 1.3 percent of global stocks.

Norwegian finance minister, Siv Jensen, on Tuesday also praised the fund for its "good management" and pledged a stable political climate as she prepares for another four years in power after securing reelection last week. 

"The fund's value has increased by 3 trillion kroner in the past four years," she said in an emailed comment. "The guidelines for fiscal policy should secure that the fund is to the benefit of current and future generations."