(Bloomberg) — Donald Trump faces a major hurdle in fulfilling his pledge to do a "big number" on the Dodd-Frank Act: persuading enough Democrats to go along.
That's why Republican lawmakers say they are considering a backup plan for dismantling parts of the financial-rules overhaul that wouldn't require support from a single Democrat.
In the narrowly-divided Senate, most bills need 60 votes to become law. But Republicans are looking into ramming through changes with just 51 votes through a complicated process known as budget reconciliation.
To do that, they'd need to demonstrate that the financial regulations are draining the government's checkbook. For instance, they'd have to supply evidence federal expenditures would be reduced if hedge funds got a break on regulations. Or that the nation's fiscal health would improve if the Treasury Department doesn't help failing banks.
The strategy is already being used to go after Obamacare. Key Republicans, including House Financial Services Chairman Jeb Hensarling of Texas, have said it's also an option for targeting at least some aspects of the 2010 Dodd-Frank law.
Republicans are constrained in which parts of the law they can kill because of the need to show a direct impact on federal spending. Still, reconciliation is an "attractive option," as the prospect of Republicans and Democrats agreeing to compromise on any legislation dims, Brian Gardner, an analyst at Keefe Bruyette & Woods wrote in a note to clients Wednesday.
"It's plausible you could do this, but the next part is the hard part — finding out what works," said Norbert Michel, a financial regulation fellow at the Heritage Foundation. "It's torturous logic to make anything fit within the limits of reconciliation."
House lawmakers, led by Hensarling, are planning to introduce legislation in the coming weeks that would make changes to Dodd-Frank, Republicans have said. Trump supports ripping up the law, saying this week that it's a "disaster" that has made it difficult for businesses to get loans and that he wants to do a "big number" on the measure. If Hensarling's bill fails to pass in the House or dies in the Senate, Republicans might then turn to reconciliation.
Here's an overview of how it works and what parts of Dodd-Frank Republicans might be able to go after.
Budget reconciliation, used to reduce the U.S. deficit, is a multi-step process in both chambers of Congress. Lawmakers are limited in the nature of what can be included in the legislation. (Photo: iStock)
Why use reconciliation to dismantle Dodd-Frank?
Republicans don't have a problem passing legislation in the House. The Senate, where they hold 52 of 100 seats, poses the bigger challenge.
Senator Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania is leading the charge in his chamber to identify what aspects of Dodd-Frank can be altered through reconciliation.
"There's a long list of what we can do," Toomey said in an interview, declining to give specifics. "We're still refining it."
Republicans will have to demonstrate that overhauling any part of Dodd-Frank they seek to eliminate will help the U.S. reduce costs or increase revenues. That requires getting an assessment from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office and sign-off from the Senate parliamentarian.
In determining the cost impact, Senate leaders could tell the budget office to consider how Dodd-Frank affects the U.S. economy. That may make it easier for some changes to be approved through reconciliation by changing the calculations over reducing government costs or increasing revenue.
Debate likely would play out as lawmakers consider the 2018 budget — a discussion that's months away. Republican leaders have already said the focus of those talks will be on revamping tax law. Adding Dodd-Frank to the discussions will create an additional hurdle.
Weakening CFPB
The future of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, a watchdog agency created under Dodd-Frank, is likely to be one of the biggest targets under reconciliation.
Dodd-Frank gives the federal government the power to intervene when U.S. banks fail. (Photo: iStock)
