Earlier this week I reviewed my predictions for 2016, many of which came true and many of which (particularly about politics) … did not. It's time to try again. Here are a baker's dozen of predictions for 2017, on a mix of serious subjects and light ones. I have appended a trio of resolutions, which, with the help of my loyal readers, I will do my best to keep.
So, without further ado:
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The so-called new Cold War between the U.S. and Russia will continue to heat up during the first year of Donald Trump's presidency, because its ultimate causes are not personal but geopolitical. Trump will surprise everyone, including himself, by piling additional sanctions on Russia atop those announced in late December by President Barack Obama. Russian President Vladimir Putin will scarcely bat an eye.
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Once Trump takes office, the left will swiftly rediscover the virtues of limited government and, in particular, strong constitutional restrictions on the independent exercise of authority by the executive. In a further turnaround, the left will celebrate corporate power as a check on government.
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Arctic sea ice will continue to melt. The ice cover is at its minimum in September, and is getting smaller each year. Skeptics will offer plausible causes for the pattern other than our changing climate, and they could be right — but none of their suggestions will be as simple as the hypothesis that the globe is getting warmer.
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The New England Patriots will complete the Tom Brady Revenge Tour by beating the Dallas Cowboys in Super Bowl LI. (Okay, yes, I pick them every year. But still.)
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Anger over immigration will make it impossible for the Republican Congress to enact the much-needed expansion of the H-1B visa program for highly skilled workers. Meanwhile, the rate at which the U.S. deports those in the country illegally will barely budge from recent levels.
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The surging bitcoin will continue to see a price rise during the first few months of 2017, but as investors realize that little of the expected new federal spending is on the way, we will pass peak bitcoin-hedging. The price will fall, although not to 2015 levels.
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