Where Charitable Giving May Head With Trump

"As a society, it's better to have a broad range of stakeholders in giving," argues Chuck Collins, one of the authors of the report. "But the trend also means more money is going to things like buildings with your name on it and less may go to human services for people in need."

Some changes being envisaged likely would cut donations by wealthy contributors: foremost is the elimination of the estate tax, a long-held goal of Republicans, who shrewdly labeled the levy the "death tax." This is paid by less than one-quarter of 1 percent of the most affluent estates, and applies only to couples worth more than $10.9 million. There's no serious argument that eliminating the estate tax would be an economic boon — except for affluent heirs — and it would cost the government $275 billion in revenue over a decade.

But studies by the Congressional Budget Office and Treasury have suggested repeal would cut into charitable giving.

Here's a hypothetical example: A wealthy couple leaves an estate valued at $20 million. Today, they might give $5.45 million, tax free, to their son and daughter and, to avoid taxation, leave $8 million to their church or synagogue, university and local hospital. If there were no estate tax, it's easy to see how they might leave junior and his sister $7 million apiece and give the non-profit $6 million, or a quarter less.

"Repeal will reduce charitable giving, the only issue is how much," says Michael Graetz, a Columbia University law professor, who was assistant Treasury secretary for tax policy in the George H.W. Bush administration and has written a book on the estate tax.

During the campaign, Trump repeatedly promised to repeal a law that prohibits tax-exempt organizations from participating in political activities. This was intended to curry favor with the religious right and, as with many of his promises, it isn't clear whether he intends to follow through.  

If he does make good on this pledge, and if such a move is upheld legally, this could reverse a trend of religious organizations getting a declining share of the charitable pie. But the likely result would be to increase politically directed contributions and activity and not help human services.

However all this unfolds, December, as always, is the biggest giving month, with contributions that are than twice as high as any other month. With a more robust economy and rising stock market, over the next few weeks remember to dig a little deeper in your pocket, especially for the poor.