An Important Rebalancing Milestone in China

The consumer story is not, however, immune from the overall deceleration trend, with real retail sales up 10.5% over the first three quarters of this year, down from 10.7% during the same period last year, and 11.4% and 11.6% two and three years ago, respectively. We expect this number—and most economic data points in China—to continue to grow more slowly every year, but we also expect this deceleration to continue to be gradual.

Unprecedented income growth is the most important factor supporting consumption. In the first three quarters of this year, real per capita disposable income rose 7.7%, while over the past decade, real urban income rose 137% and real rural income rose 139%. Some of that increase was driven by government policy: the minimum wage in Shanghai, for example, rose 187% over the past 10 years. (In the U.S., real per capita disposable personal income rose 8.4% over the last 10 years.)

And it is worth noting that one reason that the fall in the A-share market didn't depress Chinese consumers is that although the market is down sharply from its recent peak, the story isn't quite as bad as some make it out to be. As of the October 19, 2015 close, the Shanghai Composite Index was down 34% from its June 12 peak. But the index is up 5% from the start of the year, and it is up 44% from a year ago. Thus, the Shanghai Composite Index is outperforming the S&P 500 Index on a year-to-date basis (with the S&P down 1.3% as of October 16) and on a one-year basis (with the S&P up 10%).

Not Surprisingly, Private More Profitable

One of few bright spots in China's industrial sector is that profits at privately owned firms were up 13% year-over-year (YoY) in August, the eighth consecutive month of profit growth. In contrast, state-owned enterprise (SOE) industrial profits were down 44% in August, the 13th consecutive month of declining profitability. Privately owned industrial firms now account for 35% of total profits of larger industrial firms, up from a 12% share a decade ago. (Overall, private firms account for more than 80% of employment and all of China's new job creation.)

The sectoral differences are stark and explain much of the difference between private and SOE profitability, with SOEs dominating the worst sectors. For example, during the first eight months of the year, profits were down by more than 60% in the coal and oil & gas sectors, and down more than 40% in ferrous metals. On the other hand, there was double-digit profit growth in chemicals, electrical machinery, computers and communications equipment, and agricultural/food processing. A Modest Stimulus

There are signs of a small government stimulus. Outstanding bank loans rose 15.4% through September, up a bit from 13.4% through June and 13.2% a year ago. Overall credit growth, known as Total Social Finance (TSF), however, rose 12% through September, up from 11.6% in June and down from 14.2% a year ago. This difference reflects two factors. First, bank loans are a larger share of TSF this year (75%) compared to last year (60%) and in 2013 (51%), as the Communist Party has cracked down on so-called shadow banking. Second, many local government loans, which were included in TSF calculations, have been converted to government bonds, but those bonds are not included in TSF.

On the other hand, the growth rate of investment in public infrastructure—the Party's main stimulus lever in 2009—slowed last month to 14.6%, compared to 19.5% in August, 17.2% in July and 18% a year ago.

These numbers signal that the Communist Party leadership remains relatively comfortable with the state of the economy, and has taken only small steps over the past few months to stabilize the growth rate of investment, which has cooled a bit more than expected, in part because an inventory overhang in property has resulted in a 14% decline in new home starts this year. Although that has contributed to slower economic growth, it is a positive sign that developers are waiting for the recent sales pickup to draw down inventory before resuming new construction.

The modest rise in credit growth, along with the healthy consumer story, should result in continued modest macro deceleration in the coming quarters—far from the hard landing some have anticipated.

— Please visit matthewsasia.com/sinology for updates from Andy Rothman on China.