Fed beats Greece as Treasuries drop for first quarter Since 2013

June 30, 2015 at 05:20 AM
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(Bloomberg) — Haven demand sparked by the crisis in Greece isn't proving enough to prevent Treasuries from heading for their first quarterly loss since 2013, as yields climb with the Federal Reserve poised to raise interest rates this year.

U.S. sovereign securities fell, extending June's decline, a day after rising the most since 2013 as Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras unexpectedly abandoned talks with creditors. Treasuries are set to fall for a third month as a rebound in the world's biggest economy from a winter freeze buoys prospects for the Fed to increase borrowing costs as soon as September.

"Most people appreciate that the U.S. economic data is very good," said David Keeble, the New York-based head of fixed-income strategy at Credit Agricole SA. "Had Greece been put on the sidelines, we may have had a hike in June."

The Bloomberg U.S. Treasury Bond Index has declined 1.8 percent since March 31, set for its first quarterly loss since the last three months of 2013. It has fallen 0.8 percent in June through Monday, the worst monthly performance since February.

The benchmark Treasury 10-year yield rose three basis points, or 0.03 percentage point, to 2.35 percent as of 8:34 a.m. New York time, according to Bloomberg Bond Trader data. The 2.125 percent note due in May 2025 fell 1/4, or $2.50 per $1,000 face amount, to 97 31/32. The yield slid 15 basis points on Monday, the biggest one-day decline since September 2013.

Volatility climbs

As Treasuries dropped this quarter, market volatility has jumped since Tsipras called a referendum for July 5 on the austerity measures demanded by creditors. Greece is on course to withhold a $1.7 billion payment to the International Monetary Fund due Tuesday.

The Bank of America Merrill Lynch MOVE Index, which measures price swings based on options, jumped five basis points on Monday to 89.8 basis points, the biggest increase in about eight weeks.

Earlier in June, Fed Chair Janet Yellen reiterated the Fed's decision on when to raise borrowing costs for the first time since 2006 would depend primarily on U.S. economic data, while acknowledging there could be spillover to the U.S. if there was no agreement between Greece and its creditors.

Consumer confidence rose for a second month in June, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists before the numbers are released Tuesday. Payrolls data, released by the Labor Department on July 2, will show employers added more than 200,000 jobs for the 15th time in 16 months in June, according to a separate Bloomberg survey of analysts.

Surprise index

Bloomberg's U.S. economic surprise index, which measures whether data are above or below analyst estimates, rose to minus 0.46 on Monday, the highest close since Feb. 27.

"It is more or less clear the first rate hike by the Fed will be by December this year" said Daniel Lenz, lead market strategist at DZ Bank AG in Frankfurt.

Fed funds futures show there's a 28 percent chance the central bank will increase its benchmark rate from near zero in September, down from 38 percent on June 26, and a 66 percent chance by December, down from 73 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

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