The politics of repealing the estate tax

Even if Senate Republicans managed to turn enough Democrats to overcome the filibuster, President Obama would almost certainly veto the repeal measure. Earlier this year, Obama proposed to expand the estate tax's bite by eliminating the step-up in basis that allows people to pass appreciated assets on to their heirs without paying capital gains tax. There's no way he is going to allow the estate tax to be eliminated on his watch.

Realistically, that means the Republicans must wait until after the 2016 elections to finish the job of repealing the estate tax. While most political pundits expect them to keep the House of Representatives, building a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate is a sterner challenge.

Of the 34 seats up for grabs in next year's election, 24 belong to the Republicans and just 10 belong to the Democrats. To reach a 60-seat supermajority, the Republicans would have to keep all their seats and flip half the Dem seats, and hope that Joe Manchin stays on their side. That's a tall order.

And, of course, the country would have to elect a Republican president in 2016. All the major Republican candidates who have declared a position on the estate tax have called for its repeal:

• Former Florida governor Jeb Bush says he is concerned about the effect repeal would have on state tax coffers, but nevertheless says, "I support the eventual repeal of the estate tax."

• Florida senator Marco Rubio says, "Let's eliminate double taxation by abolishing the taxes on capital gains, on dividends, on interest; and, while we're at it, let's eliminate the one on death too." 

• In 2010, Kentucky Senator Rand Paul supported eliminating "every form of unfair, double taxation in the United States, including the capital gains, dividend, estate, gift, and interest tax."

• Texas senator Ted Cruz supports eliminating not just the estate tax but the entire IRS as well.

These kinds of forceful bully-pulpit statements might be enough, under the right circumstances, to repeal the estate tax again come 2017, when a new president takes office. He would have to sway public opinion enough to peel off several Democratic senators to his side, as well. But realistically, there's no chance of that happening before 2017, at the earliest.