Hedge fund assets will reach an all-time high in 2015, use of social media by industry participants will accelerate and the pace of fund closures will pick up, according to Donald Steinbrugge, the founder and managing partner of Agecroft Partners.
At the beginning of each year, Agecroft Partners, a hedge fund consulting and marketing firm, taps into its contacts with some 2,000 institutional investors and sundry hedge fund organizations to predict what the year ahead holds.
Following are Agecroft's predictions of top industry trends in 2015:
1. Higher Volatility Leads to Greater Alpha
Over the past five years, hedge fund returns have been driven mainly by market beta because of rising equity and fixed income valuations, enhanced by high correlations and lower volatility within the capital markets, according to Agecroft. Since September, however, capital market volatility has increased, and Agecroft expects this to continue as volatility levels approach historical averages. With large price movements, skilled managers find it easier to add value through security selection when security prices reach price targets more quickly, thus enabling them to reinvest capital in other opportunities.
2. Strategies That Benefit From Increased Volatility
Market neutral equity, arbitrage strategies, global macro, CTAs, long/short equity and fixed income trading strategies are benefiting from increased volatility. According to Agecroft, these strategies will be in demand both because of their increasing ability to generate alpha, and as a hedge to all-time-high equity and fixed income prices.
3. Advantage to Smaller Managers
Smaller managers will continue to outperform their much larger and better-known peers, Agecroft predicts. This is because many brand-name managers' assets have swollen well past their optimal asset level to maximize returns for their investors. As inflows increase, they find it harder to add value through security selection. The big managers also have an incentive to reduce portfolio risk in order to maintain assets, as this increases the probability of continuing to collect large management fees. As well, some of the largest managers have difficulty staying motivated once they've become ultra wealthy.
4. Shutting Down
Agecroft expects the pace of hedge funds closures to quicken this year owing to four factors:
- With the current number of hedge funds near an all-time high of 15,000, and given a consistent rate for hedge funds ceasing operations, fund closures should also be at an all-time high
- The increase in hedge fund managers has reduced the average quality of funds in the industry, and many lower quality managers will close down
- Increased capital market volatility increases the divergence in overall return between good and bad managers, resulting in turnover as bad managers get fired and money is reallocated to those who outperform
- The competitive landscape for small and midsize managers is becoming increasingly difficult, as asset flows are being driven increasingly by brand and distribution, which they lack, and their superior quality alone can't generate capital inflows.
5. Assets Soar
Agecroft expects total hedge fund industry assets to reach a new all-time high in 2015. Two factors are at work here: investors moving assets out of long-only fixed income to enhance forward-looking return assumptions, and other investors shifting some assets out of the equities to hedge against a potential market sell-off. Agecroft foresees industry assets rising by $210 billion, or 7%, based on its forecast of a 2% increase owing to net flows and 5% from performance.
