The U.S. municipal-bond market begins the week wondering whether the Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority, the commonwealth's sole provider of electricity, will pay bondholders Tuesday after lawmakers last week enacted debt-restructuring legislation.
If the utility known as Prepa fails to act, the blow would be the latest absorbed by investors buffeted by bankruptcies in Jefferson County, Alabama, and Detroit. The defaults call into question the underpinnings of the $3.7 trillion market.
"Puerto Rico has crossed the Rubicon; it's crossed the line," Richard Larkin, director of credit at Fairfield, Connecticut, investment firm Herbert J. Sims & Co., said from his office in Boca Raton, Florida. "This is absolutely a big deal and bigger than Detroit and bigger than Jefferson County because there's more money involved."
The bill signed by Governor Alejandro Garcia Padilla allows certain public corporations to restructure debt outside of bankruptcy proceedings. Bondholders have been speculating for months that a Puerto Rico agency would default. Prepa seems poised to be the first if it can persuade three-quarters of its creditors to agree, and if the commonwealth beats back a lawsuit challenging the law.
Payment Due
The utility, which raided its capital budget last month to buy fuel, has $8.6 billion of debt, with about 70% not covered by bond insurance, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
Prepa owes more than the $8 billion of general obligations and water-and-sewer debt in Detroit's record bankruptcy and the $4.2 billion that led to Jefferson County's failure. The agency, with the third-lowest speculative grade from Fitch Ratings, is due to make a bond payment Tuesday and about $204 million of its securities mature that day, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
David Millar, a New York-based spokesman for the Government Development Bank, said the bond trustee has enough money to make the payment. Abimael Lisboa Felix, a Prepa spokesman, didn't return e-mails seeking comment on its plans.
A restructuring decision would be felt in all corners of the U.S., as the commonwealth's securities are tax free nationwide and widely held by pensions and mutual funds that invest in the muni market. The commonwealth and its agencies owe $73 billion, with about 66 percent of U.S. muni mutual funds holding the securities, according to Morningstar Inc.
Watershed Moment
The turning point comes after years of economic anguish. Puerto Rico's economy has struggled to grow since 2006 and its 13.8 percent unemployment rate is more than double the U.S. average. Yet the competitive advantage afforded by the tax-free bonds made it easy for Puerto Rico and its agencies to sell debt to plug budget deficits and cover operating expenses, the combination that drove New York City to bankruptcy's brink in the 1970s.
The restructuring measure, sought by Garcia Padilla, would allow some public entities to negotiate to reduce their debt loads. The bill allows public corporations to talk with investors for nine months once 50 percent of bondholders agree to discussions. Any restructuring would require approval of 75 percent of bondholders.
The measure's effect may extend beyond the corporations. The three largest rating firms cut Puerto Rico to junk beginning in February. The bill excludes general-obligation and sales-tax bonds, but the speculative credit rating may be lowered more, Standard & Poor's said. The measure may signal "a potential shift in the commonwealth's historically strong willingness to continue to meet its obligations," analyst David Hitchcock said in a report.
No Mas
The governor has said the commonwealth will repay its general obligations. Some have given up on promises.
"I've lost all confidence in the collective leadership of Puerto Rico," Larkin said.
