Finke: Is Cash Value Life Insurance Disappearing?

Incentive Problem

Most insurance veterans are not surprised. That's because the market for any complicated financial product like insurance or mutual funds can be split into two groups—those who understand the product well and shop around for the best deal, and those who aren't that knowledgeable and must be sold the product. Cutting term life profits to the bone through online sales was great for the more knowledgeable buyers. But decreasing profits also meant less money available to incentivize agents to sell insurance products to average families—many of whom were now wary of higher-commission products.

Michael Kitces, partner at Pinnacle Advisory Group, sees an "overall societal shift that has placed a stigma on 'sales.' In a world where most life insurance still needs to be 'sold' and the public increasingly resists 'being sold' it's difficult to drive consumers to maintain proper insurance."

Without the financial incentive, it doesn't make sense to take the time to convince a family of the need for life insurance protection. According to Richard Hand, president of Valley Forge Wealth Management, "many folks simply do not have the cash flow to purchase permanent life insurance since they are maxed out with monthly living expenses. Many people are more inclined to buy a larger TV, newest iPhone, or other tech gadget as opposed to purchasing something they actually need. This is a function of behavioral finance, as well as educational background. In other words, the higher one's educational level, the more likely they will understand the benefits of owning this unique asset—be it whole life or term."

Texas Tech associate professor and former insurance agent John Gilliam agrees that the market has changed. "To make a living selling predominately term insurance you have to sell a high volume which translates [into] numerous polices and clients." According to Kitces, "life insurance agents have tended to derive the majority of their compensation from cash value insurance and the associated compensation structure; selling term insurance is often just a supplement to income and solutions. To the extent that permanent insurance use has declined—a combination of changing estate tax system, greater availability of other tax-preferenced retirement accounts and a wider range of low-cost investment solutions—that simply puts less compensation on the table for a lot of life insurance agents, and making it up on term insurance volume is difficult."

This means that the traditional middle market may be underserved by commission-compensated agents. "Most agents who make a "good" living have moved to selling in more sophisticated markets where the ability to pay the premiums for a conservative return (which is protected from creditors and liability judgments) is acceptable especially in the turbulent markets we have seen over the past decade," says Gilliam.

This is exactly what Mulholland finds when he looks at ownership trends in cash value. In 1992, 27% of households under the age of 35 owned permanent life, and by 2010 this dropped to just 11%. Lower middle-class households (20th-40th wealth percentile) rates of ownership dropped by 57% from 28% in 1992 to 12% in 2010, and middle-class (40th-60th percentile) dropped by 44% from 36% to 20%. This compares to more modest declines of 40% and 38% in the top two wealth categories.

In a multivariate analysis where we control for household characteristics like age, income, wealth and education, we find that cash value life insurance ownership actually increases by level of financial sophistication. Those in the highest 20% of financial sophistication are twice as likely to own cash value life insurance as respondents in the bottom 20%. All else equal, the most knowledgeable consumers are now the ones buying permanent policies.

Today's buyer of permanent life insurance is wealthier and more sophisticated than in the past. Many advisors employ strategies for sophisticated, higher-earning clients to ensure that the product is used effectively. We find that owning tax sheltered savings alternatives such as IRAs and 401(k)s increases the likelihood of owning a cash value policy.

The fact that qualified accounts aren't a substitute for cash value policies isn't a surprise to Professor Gilliam. "It is more likely that owning cash value life insurance is a complement to other qualified plans as those with higher sophistication are looking for ways to accumulate funds on a taxed favored basis. These individuals have most likely maxed out their qualified plan contributions and are looking for a conservative way to invest money and provide for dependents while having creditor and liability judgment protection."

Despite the downward trend, premiums to whole life policies have been increasing since the great recession. This may reflect an increase in conservatism, lower trust for other investments or even just frustration with bonds in a low yield environment. Richard Hand sees an increase in interest among his clients in the value provided by a product that blends investment and protection features. "I think one of the benefits of the great recession was that it made folks think about risk…. Post 2008, I have been selling a lot more 'plain vanilla' whole life insurance."

Can a renewed taste for plain vanilla keep cash value policies from sliding down the cliff? We'll have to wait and see.