Real politics

Let's fact-check the accuracy of this forecast surrounding the four hopefuls:

Neither the frontrunner Huckabee, nor the wildcard Palin chose to run in 2012. Newt Gingrich's campaign veered in popularity until he finally suspended it in May of 2012. Ultimately the GOP poured their hopes in Mitt Romney and—could anyone have seen this coming?—Paul Ryan.

Fascinated by economics, horrible at math
Finally, which issues were most important to the American electorate four years ago? You may be unsurprised to learn that "Economy & Jobs" were far and away the leading choice in a finite list presented to survey respondents (chosen by 42 percent). Compared to the issues which dominated the three presidential debates last month, can we finally conclude, "It's the economy, stupid?" (Speaking of Jobs, for readers familiar with this author's piece Real Economy—also found on LifeHealthPro—you are aware how frequently unemployment stats are misinterpreted.)

Perhaps more interesting than Economy & Jobs were the issues of secondary importance. Next up was "Moral & Family Values", followed closely behind by "Education."

Do we feel that either of these topics was covered in any great depth during 2012? To some extent, the character of the candidates was raised tangentially ("Show me your transcripts!"… "Show me your tax returns!"), but the election of 2012 hinged on much larger issues. (For what it's worth, I think we all know in our guts that had the "Petraeus sex scandal" broken a few weeks earlier, the Romney campaign would have diverted all power to the "Moral & Family Values" engine.)

Barely making a dent back in 2008 were "Health Care" and the "War in Iraq" (7 percent apiece), followed by "Taxes" and "Immigration" (5 percent equally). What a difference 4 years makes! In light of the President's signature Affordable Care Act, healthcare has moved centerstage. Paul Ryan introduced his Medicare voucher plan, while Romney vowed to "Repeal or Replace". And of course, with the so-called fiscal cliff looming so near to the election, "Taxes" became a central battle front, waged particularly around a $250,000 trench.

Four years ago, Americans were still mindful of Iraq. In 2012, the Republicans attempted to raise the spectre of Benghazi during the debates, but it never quite took root. Four years from now, which country will the United States be entangled with whose name today is yet unknown? It's a crazy and sad game, is it not?

I don't mind the fortunetelling, but let's keep them honest. In 2016, let's go back to the archives we're making today, and check how many predictions "they" got right!