Home Sweet Home ... or Maybe Not

Commentary November 30, 2011 at 12:52 PM
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Part of being an advisor is to warn your clients of unseen risks that lurk in the "shadows" for their home security. Protecting against predators is a no-brainer, but now a more aggressive and much more discreet thief looms in almost every neighborhood, nationwide. Losing valuables and property such as your iPad, laptop or large screen HDTV is expensive, but those things can insured.

The new bogeyman that will steal away their retirement plan and financial plan is a silent assassin that is quietly, undeterred siphoning off hundreds of thousands of dollars of your clients' money. 

Worse, it's part of their safe money, the once considered "core" holding of any investment plan.  It is the value of their home.  No longer is owning a home considered a super safe investment for retirement or investment. Tens of thousands of homes are already owned by banks but many more will soon be foreclosed.    

Untold and unimaginable numbers of homes are going to be dumped onto the real estate market unless nothing short of a miracle occurs. Home values have already dropped 25% (even more if you add in the cost of inflation) and could drop as much or more in the future. 

Why? Banks are not very good landlords; In fact, they are horrible at it.  Their actions could add fuel to an already out of control inferno as the banks are forced to raise liquidity (cash) to stay in business. There are already more homes for sale than there are buyers yet the roughly 1.6 million homes in the nation's shadow inventory promise to drag down home prices for years,

In relative "hot spots" such as Texas, 1 out of 985 homes are in foreclosure, but in Florida 1 out of 368 and worse Nevada 1 out of 118 homes are in foreclosure.  Even in not-so-glamorous, no flash and dash Midwest states such as Iowa, have 1 out of 667 homes in foreclosure (the national average historical number would be more like 1 out of 15,000 homes). 

But, as an advisor, these stats can make great talking points and reasons for your clients to come see you. What's the best financial strategy for your clients and the looming shelter debacle?

If your clients are already renting, advise them to keep renting; at least for a couple more years. Tell them not to sign a lease longer than 12 months as better deals on homes are practically a sure probability. For clients that are going through a divorce, let the ex have the house and advise your client to take the cash or property equivalent instead of the real estate. 

It will be tough for them to swallow now, but they'll be grateful later. For clients who currently own their home, make certain they budget well to be able to keep it. Or maybe consider selling it?

Get out and invest whatever cash they get from the sale. Very low-risk investments that are insured by an institution or a state or federal government; for example, annuities (fixed annuity or index annuity, even Suze Orman loves these), CDs, US Government money market or cool hybrids such as no surrender charge, single premium whole life insurance could be ideal.  

Then hunker down for the coming real estate Winter and relax… enjoy the ride because there's nothing you can do about it other than wait it out and be ready for the "spring" (pun intended) eventually. 

Good deals appear to be popping up everywhere in real estate; but tell your clients to hold off on buying or committing just yet.  The art of the deal is only getting better.

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