S&P 500 to Lose 3.3% by End of March, Says Birinyi Associates

The Standard & Poor's 500 Index will fall to 1,232 by March 31, marking the bottom of a "modest correction," according to Birinyi Associates Inc., which cited data measuring average drops of at least 5% since 1945.

Bloomberg reports the decrease would represent a 3.3% retreat from Thursday's close of 1,273.72. When the S&P 500 loses 5% during a rallying period, the decline lasts an average of 41 days and extends to 8.3% according to a report today by Cleve Rueckert, an analyst at Birinyi Associates. The S&P 500 peaked this year at 1,343.01 on Feb. 18, its highest level since June 2008. It has since fallen 5.2%, paring gains since March 9, 2009, to 88%, according to the news service.

"History suggests that the current decline will be short- lived, and most likely presents a buying opportunity," the Westport, Connecticut-based research and money-management firm said in a report Thursday.