Global Markets Drop on China Rate Hike Fears

January 20, 2011 at 12:40 PM
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LONDON (AP) — Fears that China will tighten its monetary policy hit stocks hard Thursday despite another batch of encouraging U.S. economic news.

Sentiment has been low all day amid concerns that China, the world's second-largest economy and the main engine of growth in the global economy over the last few years, will have to cool its growth to get inflation levels down.

Figures earlier Thursday showed that China's economy grew by 9.8% in the fourth quarter of 2010, up from 9.6% in the previous three-month period. Despite a drop in inflation to 4.6% in December from the 28-month high of 5.1% the month before, price rises remain stubbornly high and could pose a danger to the Chinese economy if left unchecked.

"Higher-than-expected growth simply worried investors in to a belief that there is now a greater risk of tighter monetary policy," said Andrew Wilkinson, senior market analyst at Interactive Brokers.

China has already moved towards tighter monetary policy, raising interest rates twice in the last four months. Last week, the central bank raised the amount of money banks must keep on reserve for the seventh time in a year.

Still, many analysts think Chinese authorities need to do more.

"Policymakers are behind the curve and need to act decisively if they are to curb inflation," said Diana Choyleva, an analyst at Lombard Street Research. "The longer growth stays above trend, the worse the necessary downswing is set to be. China's violent cycle could be highly destabilizing for the world."

Unsurprisingly, Chinese shares took the brunt of the selling in Asia. The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index dived 2.9% to 2,677.65. The Shenzhen Composite Index for China's smaller, second market slid 3.4% to 1,170.47.

Japan's Nikkei 225 stock average closed down 1.1% while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index shed 1.7% and South Korea's Kospi lost 0.4% a day after finishing at a new record high.

The selling pressure persisted into the European and U.S. sessions.

In Europe, the FTSE 100 index of leading British share closed down 108.79 points, or 1.8%, at 5,867.91 while Germany's DAX fell 58.49 points, or 0.8%, to 7,024.27. The CAC-40 in France ended down 0nly 0.3% at 3,964.84.

On Wall Street, the Dow Jones industrial average, Standard & Poor's 500 index and the Nasdaq closed marginally lower for Thursday.

The declines on Wall Street came despite news from the Labor Department that U.S. jobless claims fell by 37,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 404,000. The figures supported hopes that recent increases in joblessness may have had more to do with seasonal factors, such as Christmas and the weather, than any underlying worsening in the U.S. economic situation.

Further good news emerged in the monthly survey of existing homes by the National Association of Realtors. It revealed that sales swelled 12.3% to an annualized rate of 5.28 million in December. That's the first time the rate has pushed above 5 million since June and was way ahead of expectations for sales of 4.9 million.

The latest batch of U.S. corporate earnings statements, including forecast-busting results from bank Morgan Stanley, failed to support markets much.

Google will be in the spotlight after the markets close when it publishes its latest quarterly update.

In the currency markets, the euro fell 0.2% to $1.3443 after weak European consumer confidence figures raised concerns about the pace of the economic recovery in the 17-nation single currency bloc.

However, the euro has been buoyant of late and struck a near two-month high Wednesday of $1.3538 amid mounting hopes that policymakers are finally getting a handle on the debt crisis following a year of crisis management.

A report that Germany was planning for a restructuring of bailed-out Greece's debt — later denied by Germany — was a timely reminder that the market remains tense and that the crisis will not fade quickly.

The yen was under pressure, to the likely relief of the country's major exporters, amid fears that Chinese policy will get tighter — lower growth in China would dent demand for Japanese goods and services.

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(Pamela Sampson in Bangkok contributed to this report.)

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