Post Hoc

Commentary January 12, 2011 at 07:00 PM
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It was a difficult weekend for America. At the most quintessential of American gatherings — a town-hall type meeting where a legislator wanted to listen to and interact with constituents, gunshots rang out. In mere seconds, six people lost their lives, and 13 others, including a member of the U.S. House of Representatives, were injured.

Minutes after the shooting of Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, pundits and politicians alike began to use the events as a wedge. With absolutely no evidence, everyone from the local sheriff to a New York Times columnist and others across the political left began the blame game. New York Times columnist Paul Krugman's blog post implied that the shooting was the result of "the rhetoric of Beck, Limbaugh, etc." He added, "Violent acts are what happen when you create a climate of hate."

Former Nebraska Sen. Bob Kerry — again with no evidence whatsoever — said that "one of the reasons this guy was angry" was the impending repeal of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. Others piled on, using the actions of a single individual as pretext for everything from proposing new laws about "hate speech" and new gun control laws.

Those who study logic call this fallacy "Post hoc ergo propter hoc." The Latin translates to "after this, therefore because of this." It is a form typically used by those who seek to confirm their own biases by twisting facts to try to establish causality. The rooster crows every morning, and then the sun comes up. Therefore, the rooster is responsible for the sunrise.

Logic like that is about the only thing that could make this weekend's events even worse. Reverend Franklin Graham cautioned, "Hasty accusations have already been made before much information is known and an investigation has occurred. I believe this is counterproductive and could in itself incite hatred. This is not a time for political opportunism."

Check out more blog entries from David Saltzman.

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