On January 1, 1946, the first drop landed in the ocean. That drop caused a small, insignificant ripple. Over the years, the number of drops has grown to nearly 80 million, and those drops have started a tsunami that experts believe will create health care havoc for years to come.
The "drops" are baby boomers, aging into Medicare eligibility at the rate of one every 8 seconds. Last Saturday, the 1946 "drops" became eligible for Medicare — and nearly 2.8 million more will qualify by the end of this year alone.
David Walker is a former U.S. comptroller general, appointed by President Clinton, who now heads the Comeback America Initiative, a fiscal watchdog group. According to Walker, "We're at the beginning of the age wave, which will bring a tsunami of spending associated with the Medicare program." He believes that this wave "serves to reinforce the need to reform existing entitlement programs and restructure existing health-care promises in order to make them affordable and sustainable."
Boomers will increase the number of Medicare beneficiaries by 3% a year, while the economy is adding workers by less than 1%. The worker to beneficiary ratio is projected to drop from 3.4 today to 2.3 in 2030. In addition to the sheer number of additional beneficiaries, we'll be spending more than ever per capita, as medical advances will continue to extend lives.
