Kicking the can

Commentary June 30, 2010 at 08:00 PM
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The gross underestimation of the costs of running Medicare is a matter of record, and began just shortly after its enactment in 1965. We baby boomers combined with the current level of unemployment have just exacerbated an existing problem.

In 1997 Congress finally admitted that there was a problem with the program's viability and crafted legislation to force themselves to make annual adjustments to the program's payment schedules to help keep it solvent. You will be unsurprised to learn that Congress has deferred making cuts every year since.

Ten times since the law passed they have kicked the can down the road. Whether they are concerned about the hospital lobby, their reelection or the rather quaint and altruistic notion that we should have doctors and hospitals who are paid enough to properly treat Medicare beneficiaries is hard to know.

Lately, this so-called "Doc fix" has been kicked around more than a soccer ball at the World Cup. Nevertheless, the concern is that if these cuts (21% this year and rising) were made, providers would stop seeing Medicare patients. There is some early evidence of this trend – elements of the Mayo Clinic have stopped treating Medicare patients altogether.

The big dark secret that no one is talking about is that a cut in reimbursements today is tempered by providers' ability to shift some of the difference between Medicare reimbursements and their retail costs to the private sector.

Some of the scenarios about how the new health care law may play out envision a significant contraction in the number of private payers. The real question is to whom will providers shift those costs if the private sector contracts or disappears. If they can't shift costs, what will the new medical delivery system look like? So many questions; so little leadership.

Check out more blog entries from David Saltzman.

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