My Eight Timeless Lessons

January 25, 2010 at 07:00 PM
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Benjamin Graham, the late economist known as "the father of investing," was famously noted for saying, "Wall Street people learn nothing and forget everything." He delivered this quip a generation ago, but could have said it last month.

I'd like to think that our generation of investors can prove Graham wrong. But to do so, we have to learn from events such as the 2008 financial crisis. That begins by putting it in the proper perspective.

I tried to do that recently. After thinking about the many mentors I've had throughout my career and the various market cycles I've seen, I came up with the following short list of lessons for investors that, in my view, are timeless.

Lesson 1: Protect risk-based needs first. Think of clients' personal finances in terms of "human capital" and "financial capital." Human capital is the potential to generate income, while financial capital is the wealth one accumulates. Over time, by harnessing human capital to produce income, clients will generate revenue to invest and build financial capital. As one ages and approaches retirement, financial capital should replace human capital.

During the income-earning years, disability insurance can protect clients' income if human capital is not available to draw on. Permanent life insurance from a AAA-rated company does double duty by protecting income for dependents in the event of the client's premature death; and life insurance can contribute to financial capital through the cash value of the policy.

Lesson 2: Understand the difference between saving and investing. Limiting debt and spending less than one earns are only part of the equation. Clients also need to be wary of becoming too dependent on investment returns in lieu of savings. To get back to the basics of savings and investing, separate the client's excess income (i.e. money left over after monthly expenses) into three buckets:

? Rainy day emergency fund: This bucket should contain six months' worth of living expenses in cash-like instruments, such as a money market or high-interest savings account. This account can help the client address unexpected situations that would exceed monthly living expenses.

? Immediate-term investments: This next bucket should contain enough to address needs the client will have within the next 5 years, such as making a down payment on a house or covering tuition payments. These funds may be invested conservatively (e.g., in short-term bonds), but do not need to be as liquid as a "rainy day" account.

? Long-Term Investments: In this bucket, the client's time horizon should be well beyond 5 years. This is the portion of your financial wealth that you are comfortable exposing to market risk. Funds set aside to accumulate for retirement, paying for a child's college education, or other long-term needs should be invested in a fully diversified portfolio.

Lesson 3: Diversify, use a strategic asset allocation strategy and rebalance. A significant criticism coming from the 2008 market collapse was that diversification did not work because nearly every asset class lost money. Despite the short-term losses many investors experienced, not putting all your eggs in one basket is still a sound strategy.

In a strategic asset allocation-driven portfolio, some assets will experience greater swings than others, but investment returns should balance over time. The key is to appropriately diversify between assets with greater or less risk, while protecting against holding a concentrated risk in just one asset class.

Rebalancing is also critical for long-term portfolio health. It involves regularly selling assets that have appreciated beyond your strategic asset allocation limits and purchasing in asset classes that have become underweighted. Portfolios that are rebalanced systematically should generally deliver similar results across bull and bear markets.

? Lesson 4: If it seems too good to be true, it is. There are no free lunches, especially as regards investing. Don't reach for yield. Don't be seduced by the promises of managers delivering "alpha." You need look no further than Bernie Madoff to remind yourself of how the desire to achieve incremental yield can come at the expense of liquidity and long-term portfolio health.

Always ask yourself, "What am I asking the client to invest in and how does the vehicle work?" If you don't know, then you need to find out. Then ask yourself, "What is the worst possible outcome that could occur by holding this instrument?" Make sure you can live with the answer before asking the client to invest.

? Lesson 5: Don't sell good assets at bad prices. History has shown time and again that market corrections are followed by a period of investor panic, usually occurring precisely at the market bottom. Investors tell themselves that by moving to cash or radically scaling back the risk in their portfolios, they are protecting their assets.

In reality, they are often inflicting long-term damage on their portfolios by selling holdings at bad prices and not successfully timing their re-entry to the market, thereby locking in big losses. To put last year's widespread sell-off into perspective, consider that many investors saw the value of their homes drop by as much as the values of their 401(k)s during 2007-2009. Did any of these individuals sell their homes and move to a tent until the housing market recovered?

It is practically impossible to predict when a recovery will occur and these periods are only identified in retrospect. By staying invested consistently in the markets, clients will be positioned to take advantage of the inevitable market recoveries, which are often clustered into short periods of time. The long-term gains they could realize from being invested during the recovery period can lead to portfolio value in the long term.

? Lesson 6: Balance optimism with skepticism. Your investment outlook should be between Cassandra and Pollyanna. Have confidence that capitalism still works and that the hierarchy of returns– equities over bonds, bonds over cash–still holds true in the long run. Don't rely on credit ratings alone and do your due diligence before recommending an investment to the client.

Listen to your inner skeptic and be concerned that U.S. debt ratings are not immune to a potential downgrade. Balance this perspective with your inner optimist by never giving up on or betting against America. The U.S. has proven to be more economically resilient that any other modern economy.

Lesson 7: Be humble. With the arrival of each new tide on Wall Street, investors try to find patterns where there aren't any. And they are quick to proclaim skill when it is perhaps nothing more than luck. More has been lost in the markets through arrogance than by all of the bear markets and Madoff combined. While alternative investing strategies may have short-term success, there is no long-term, fail-safe method to consistently delivering super-sized returns.

In 2008, many investors thought they had the answers. Some wanted to move to the sidelines and went to cash. However, staying in cash over the long-term will not build wealth. Some wanted to hedge. Hedging doesn't always work because it has some elements of market-timing: You need to know when to put the hedge on and when to unwind it, and no one can accurately predict what the markets are going to do.

Still others wanted to sell short. When the U.S. and other markets issued bans on short selling, short-sellers were left without an investment strategy. Each of these investors thought they could out-smart the market and most of them got it wrong.

? Lesson 8: Don't tell yourself, "It's different this time." It never is. History may not repeat itself, but it can serve as a useful template. Many pundits, respected academics, strategists and financial advisors have gone to great lengths this year to show that the markets are different this time around. But the core market fundamentals remain in place. The tenets of capitalism still apply.

Take note of history and avoid the market forecasting game no matter how sound you believe your process to be. The market is not always efficient in digesting information and fully reflecting it in the prices of securities. Why else would the Dow be valued above 14,000 in October 2007 and be at 10,000 by October 2009? Hence, having a long-term investment strategy, executed with a repeatable process, is essential to taking the emotion, and your own ego, out of investment actions.

Those are my eight timeless lessons. Give some thought to what yours might be. Then sit down with your clients and talk about the best ways not only to avoid making mistakes, but also of repeating history.

Emmett Wright, CFA, is the chief investment officer of the Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Co., Milwaukee, Wis. He can be reached at [email protected]

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