For the Anti-Reform-Minded, a Glimmer of Hope

Commentary January 17, 2010 at 07:00 PM
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Since Democrats gained control of the White House and Congress with the 2008 election, health care reform has moved full-steam ahead, and showed little signs of slowing. Though Republicans are virtually unanimous against the legislation (of Republicans, only Rep. Anh "Joseph" Cao of Louisiana voted for the bill), there simply weren't enough of them to keep it from pushing forward through both chambers of Congress and into the negotiating phase. But now, for the first time, the GOP is seeing the first signs that Democrats may not have reform in the bag.

The race to fill the Massachusetts Senate seat left vacant by the late Sen. Edward M. Kennedy has turned into a battle for the future of health reform. The two candidates – Democrat Martha Coakley and Republican Scott Brown – have opposing views on the issue, and it seems whoever wins the seat may have the power to vote down (or not) reform.

"As the 41st senator, I can stop it," Brown recently said during a debate. Brown is not in favor of the current federal health reform bill, though he did vote to pass the Massachusetts health insurance mandate, which the federal bill is based on.

Vicki Kennedy, the senator's widow, gave an endorsement of Coakley last week along with four other speakers. She said electing Coakley was necessary to preserve the crucial 60th Democratic vote that has prevented Republicans from stopping the overhaul bill.

In fact, the stakes are so high that Democrats are willing to take up to a month to verify election results should Brown win. And since voter turnouts are generally low during special elections such as this, it's hard to predict who will show up to vote and who won't.

At this point, however, it doesn't seem likely that Brown will win. A recent Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely voters showed Coakley ahead by 2 percent – a tighter margin than before, but still a significant lead. What is likely is that the vote will be close enough to strengthen claims that Democrats are at risk of losing their congressional majorities.

Heather Trese is the associate editor of the Agent's Sales Journal.

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