Commercial mortgage-backed securities delinquencies may peak at 12% in 2012, up from about 4.7% at the end of 2009, according to Fitch Ratings.
Rating analysts at Moody's Investors Service, New York, are also expecting to see the CMBS delinquency rate increase, but they are expecting to see life insurers weather the storm, according to a team of analysts in the New York office of UBS Investment Research, New York.
The overall U.S. CMBS delinquency rate has climbed from about 0.9% in December 2008, and from less than 0.3% in December 2007, Fitch says.
Fitch based its December 2009 figures on an analysis of a list of 2,143 commercial mortgage loans that are at least 60 days delinquent or in foreclosure.
"Though delinquencies have increased approximately 5 times from a year ago, they may not peak until 2012," Mary MacNeill, a Fitch managing director, says in a statement. "An increased amount of loans are coming due over the next 2 years that will result in delinquencies possibly peaking at 12%."
