It's rare that a consensus forms across a wide cross-section of investors. One market view, however, seems indisputable for bulls and bears alike: China will lead the world in economic growth for the foreseeable future, and its mounting stream of manufactured exports will dominate an ever larger swath of the global marketplace.
The 14-fold expansion in China's economy over the past three decades has been nothing short of astonishing. In 2009, China will mark 15 straight years of economic growth, and consensus forecasts call for that streak to keep going in the years ahead. In 1994, China's gross domestic product (GDP) was $559 billion, about the size of Canada's and one quarter the size of Germany's, according to data from the International Monetary Fund. By 2007, China's GDP was double that of Canada and surpassed Germany to become the world's third largest. IMF forecasts indicate China's GDP will outstrip Japan's in 2010, making it the world's second largest behind the United States.
Even aside from China's growth potential, many investors putting money in China expect to benefit from the future appreciation of China's currency, the yuan, against the U.S. dollar.
The ETF Options
Investors interested in China have a number of ETF options available, and more are arriving every day. There are at least eight ETFs focused on China specifically, including those targeting large-cap and small-cap styles, as well as sector ETFs targeting China's real estate, industrial, and consumer sector stocks.
With about $10 billion in assets, the iShare's FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index Fund (FXI) is the clear asset leader among China country funds and almost 20 times the size of its largest rival. This ETF holds a select group of large-cap stocks that are benchmarks for their sectors–similar to the Dow Jones Industrial Average. It is the oldest China ETF, opening for business in October 2004. Since then it has posted an annual average total return of almost 20%.
