Stock Funds Suffer Net Outflow in 2002; Bonds Set

January 31, 2003 at 07:00 PM
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Jan. 30, 2003 — Stock funds suffered a net outflow of $27.1

billion in 2002, versus a net inflow of about $31.9 billion in calendar

2001, according to data released by the Investment Company Institute.

The last full year stock funds recorded net outflows was in 1998.

However, net outflows for 2002 represented only 0.9% of average assets,

while outflows in 1998 represented 8%, ICI noted.

Stock funds again reversed course at the end of the year, suffering a net

outflow of about $7.8 billion in December, after inflows of $7 billion in

November, ICI said. Bond funds, in contrast, had inflows $7.4 billion in

December, versus inflows of $7.6 billion in November.

Overall, bonds fund took in a record $140.5 billion in 2002, versus $87.7

billion in 2001. The previous record net flow into bond funds was $103

billion in 1986.

Taken in aggregate, however, inflows to stock, bond and hybrid funds were

little changed from 2001 levels, ICI noted. Flows to these long-term funds

totaled $122.1 billion in 2002, versus $129.2 billion in 2001.

Money-market funds recorded an outflow of $38.9 billion in December,

compared with an inflow of $129.9 billion in November. Funds offered

primarily to institutions had an outflow of $27.3 billion in December, while

funds offered primarily to individuals had an outflow of $11.7 billion.

I believe that 2003 will be a threshold year for the mutual fund

industry," said Louis Harvey, president of Dalbar Inc., a Boston-based

mutual fund consultant. "Unless we start seeing overall positive returns in

the equity markets in the first quarter of this new year, we will likely see

massive outflows from equity funds."

Harvey said his clients, mostly investment advisory firms, "have not seen

such market deterioration in their lifetimes that we've seen here." He also

noted that the deepening crisis with Iraq is another variable that the

market and, by extension the mutual fund industry, must contend with, along

with market conditions and corporate earnings.

ICI said that the "severity of the bear market depressed stock fund

assets, which declined to $2.7 trillion from $3.4 trillion in 2001. Year-end

2002 stock fund assets were down 42% from their peak in August 2000,

mirroring the overall equity market decline. Despite the negative tone of

the stock market during much of 2002, the behavior of stock mutual

shareholders was generally consistent with historical patterns."

ICI noted the "small net outflow was consistent with the response of

equity fund investors to previous market cycles: Cash flow tends to

strengthen during periods of strong market performance, and slow during

periods of weak performance. Both sales and redemptions declined in 2002,

however sales fell more than redemptions, leading to a net outflow."

Harvey added that the one "hopeful" sign is that mutual fund investors

have, thus far, not abandoned the market in droves. "Even though a

$27-billion outflow is a large number, it's quite small compared to a

trillion-dollar market," he said.

Overall, the combined assets of the nation's mutual funds decreased by

$167.3 billion, or 2.6%, to $6.4 trillion in December. Combined assets were

$6.9 trillion at the end of 2001.

Net New Cash Flow of Long-Term Funds (Bil.$)

STOCK MUTUAL FUNDS Amounts in Billion $

December 2002 November 2002* Full Year 2002 Full Year 2001*

  • New Sales 62.43 66.16 899.71 953.20
  • Redemptions -66.68 -60.25 -880.01 -892.92
  • Net Exchanges -3.49 1.05 -46.79 -28.35
  • Net New Cash Flow -7.75 6.95 -27.10 31.93

TAXABLE BOND MUTUAL FUNDS December 2002 November 2002* Full Year 2002

Full Year 2001*

  • New Sales 27.70 26.54 328.63 241.20
  • Redemptions -21.75 -18.70 -227.53 -177.53
  • Net Exchanges 0.72 0 22.96 12.44
  • Net New Cash Flow 6.67 7.82 124.05 76.11
  • MUNICIPAL BOND MUTUAL FUNDS
  • December 2002 November 2002* Full Year 2002 Full Year 2001*
  • New Sales 5.15 4.48 66.85 56.04
  • Redemptions -4.74 -4.34 -52.11 -45.40
  • Net Exchanges 0.29 -0.34 1.70 0.95
  • Net New Cash Flow 0.70 -0.20 16.44 11.59

HYBRID MUTUAL FUNDS December 2002 November 2002* Full Year 2002 Full

Year 2001*

  • New Sales 6.15 5.75 78.55 70.29
  • Redemptions -5.83 -4.75 -69.18 -61.04
  • Net Exchanges -0.09 0.20 -0.68 0.27
  • Net New Cash Flow 0.24 1.21 8.69 9.52
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