Christie’s Path

In late 2011, amid speculation about a Christie presidential run, an online publication called The Awl described that lobbying as a vulnerability for Christie, since one of his projects was "to win an exemption for securities fraud from New Jersey's Consumer Fraud Act." The Awl then stated that the industry association at the time "was led by one Bernard Madoff," and enthused about a possible "attack ad" on the topic.

In reality, Madoff was a board member, not a sole leader, of the industry group, as part of his pretense of being a legitimate businessman, and of course no conceivable change in any law would have made his vast fraud legal. Still, if Christie does run for higher office, we might not have heard the last of his supposed connection to Madoff.

 Veep Prospects

In January, Christie downplayed the possibility of being a vice presidential candidate, stating that his style might be an obstacle. "I don't know if I'm the guy to stand three feet behind somebody and nod my head," Christie told Meet the Press. "That's not necessarily in my character." He did not, however, rule out anything.

The governor endorsed Romney last October after declining to make his own entry into the presidential race, and subsequently campaigned for Romney in Iowa and New Hampshire. Christie's outspokenness has remained intact, throughout. Early this year, as Romney hesitated to release his tax returns, Christie publicly pressed the candidate to do so "sooner rather than later."

As Romney's evident grip on the nomination has tightened, speculation has persisted that Christie might be his running mate. In early April, the Intrade prediction market put Christie's chance of getting the nod at over 10%, ranking him second after Florida Sen. Marco Rubio's 25%. Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell and Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan trailed Christie slightly, while New Mexico Gov. Susana Martinez and Ohio Sen. Rob Portman put in respectable showings in the upper single digits.

For Romney and his team, considering a choice of Christie means weighing some formidable upsides and downsides. Christie's style could be seen as a liability, amid concerns about teamwork and tact. Then again, Christie's tone has been vital in generating enthusiasm for him among conservatives, overshadowing some substantive disagreements with the right, including on gun control and climate change. Forcefulness can be a valuable asset in a vice presidential candidate — or a vice president.

At the same time, Christie has shown an ability to appeal beyond the conservative Republican base. He has been broadly popular, with approval ratings in the high 50s, in New Jersey, a state that has been firmly Democratic in recent presidential elections. Christie on the ticket would raise the possibility that New Jersey, with its 14 electoral votes, just might swing Republican this year. Then again, that is far from a sure thing.

Another consideration would be whether Romney should balance his own gubernatorial background with someone who has experience in Congress and/or foreign policy. However, choosing a Washington insider could also be a liability amid populist currents in public opinion, and foreign policy has relatively low visibility in current debate (though a crisis could change that). Christie, for his part, showed an expanding international interest with a recent trade mission to the Middle East.

All these considerations, of course, presume that Romney is going to be the nominee. In the unlikely event that this is not the case, there will be a brokered Republican convention with an unpredictable outcome. In such a scenario, Christie surely would be an important contender for either the top or the bottom of the GOP ticket.

Kenneth Silber, a resident of New Jersey, is senior editor of Research magazine.